USDA Wheat Outlook Report

 

U.
S.
domestic outlook

 

U.
S.
domestic wheat supply and demand data at a glance

 

　　The U.
S.
Crop Progress Report shows that as of November 7, in 18 states that accounted for 90% of the national winter wheat planting area, the planting progress of winter wheat in 2022/23 reached 91%, which was consistent with the five-year average progress and was lower than the 92% in the same period last year.
%
.
The emergence rate was 74%, slightly lower than the 78% in the same period last year and the five-year average of 77%
.

 

　　U.
S.
wheat seed usage in 2021/22 is raised by 4 million bucks to 66 million bucks, because the US Department of Agriculture estimated on November 5 that the wheat planting area in 2022/23 would increase
.
The seed consumption of most varieties of wheat will be higher than that of the previous year.
Among them, the seed consumption of hard red winter wheat is estimated to be 28 million cats, and the seed consumption of hard red spring wheat is estimated to be 17 million cats
.
The seed consumption of soft red winter wheat is estimated to be 13 million cats, the seed consumption of white wheat is estimated to be 55 million cats, and the seed consumption of durum wheat is estimated to be 2.
5 million cats
.

 

　　The forecast value of all wheat exports from the United States in 2021/22 is lowered by 15 million cats from the previous month to 860 million cats, due to weak export sales and the pace of shipments
.
According to data from the US Census and Investigation Bureau, wheat exports from June to September were 337 million cats, a year-on-year decrease of 9% and reached more than one-third of the annual export forecast target
.
However, the export sales report of the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's Overseas Agricultural Service showed that export sales slowed significantly in October
.

 

　　The forecast value of US white wheat exports is revised down by 5 million cats to 150 million cats, while hard red spring wheat exports are revised down by 10 million cats to 215 million cats
.
Due to the dry weather, the supply of white wheat and hard red winter wheat is tight, and prices have risen, resulting in the adjustment of export demand so far
.
The forecast value of hard red winter wheat exports remains unchanged at 360 million cats; soft red winter wheat exports are expected to reach 120 million cats; durum wheat exports are expected to remain unchanged at 15 million cats, a year-on-year decrease of nearly half because of extremely tight supply
.

 

　　Based on the pace of imports so far, the forecast for all wheat imports in the United States for the 2021/22 season is lowered by 10 million bushes to 115 million bushels
.
Among them, the import data of hard red spring wheat and durum wheat are both revised down by 5 million bucks to 55 million bucks and 45 million bucks respectively
.
Hard red spring wheat and durum wheat have been severely affected by drought this year, resulting in tight supply and rising prices
.
However, imports of these two types of wheat were limited from June to September because the output of Canada, the main supplier, was also affected by drought
.

 

　　The National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (NASS)'s flour processing output report showed that the use of wheat was lower than expected, so this month it lowered its wheat consumption forecast for the year of 202/22 by 2 million cats to 962 million cats
.
Among them, the consumption data of hard red winter wheat is revised up by 10 million cats to 410 million cats; the consumption data of hard red spring wheat is revised down 10 million cats to 238 million cats; and durum wheat is revised down 2 million cats to 80 million cats
.
The slowing down of durum processing indicates that after the surge last year, the dosage of durum will return to a more normal level
.
The reason for the surge in durum consumption in the past year is the strong demand for pasta during the COVID-19 pandemic
.
Considering the severe drought in the northern plains and the tight supply of hard red spring wheat, the proportion of hard red spring wheat in wheat flour processing will decrease slightly, while the proportion of hard red winter wheat will increase slightly
.
The price difference between hard red spring wheat and hard red winter wheat is extremely large this year, and businesses are encouraged to blend more hard red winter wheat in flour production
.
In addition, another result of this year’s drought is the abnormally high protein content of hard red spring wheat.
According to the crop quality report of the American Wheat Association, the protein content of hard red spring wheat is estimated to reach 15.
4%, which is much higher than the five-year average of 14.
4%.
This is to further encourage businesses Blend more hard red winter wheat into flour production
.
The consumption data for soft red winter wheat remains unchanged at 150 million cats, and white wheat remains at 84 million cats
.

 

　　The wheat farm price forecast for 2021/22 is raised by US$0.
20 to US$6.
90 per cat.
As wheat farm prices have been firm as of September, spot and futures prices are expected to remain strong
.
The price of all wheat farms in September 2021 is estimated to be US$7.
55 per cat, which is higher than the US$7.
13 in August and much higher than the US$4.
73 in the same period last year
.

 

　　Forecast of wheat supply and demand from 2022/23 to 2031/32

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture released the forecast data of wheat supply and demand from 2022/23 to 2031/32 on November 5
.
The sown area of ​​all wheat in 2022/23 is expected to be 49 million acres, an increase of 5% over the 2021/22 season due to strong price prospects
.
Due to the expected increase in the wheat sown area in 2022/23, the wheat seed consumption data for the 2022/22 season is revised up by 4 million bucks to 66 million bucks
.
The average yield of all wheat in 2022/23 is expected to be 49.
1 bu per acre, which is 11% higher than the level of drought reduction in 2021/22
.
The yield is based on the trend line yield since 1985/86, provided that the weather conditions are normal
.
Production is expected to increase by 22% to 2 billion cattails
.
Imports are expected to be 120 million cattails
.

 

　　Domestic use is expected to decrease because the decline in feed and other uses exceeds the slight increase in consumption data
.
The feed consumption and other consumption data of wheat are lowered because the supply of corn is still huge and the price of wheat is high, which will make wheat lose its competitiveness in feed production
.
Wheat consumption is expected to increase by 4 million cats, or 0.
4%, to 966 million cats, based on the assumption that per capita consumption is relatively stable
.
Exports are expected to increase by 65 million cats to 925 million cats, as the supply increases and prices are more competitive
.
The ending inventory is expected to increase by 53 million cats to 636 million cats, which will still be the second lowest level since 2013/14
.
The average price of wheat farms is estimated to be US$6.
50 per cat, which is US$0.
40 lower than that of the 2021/22 season, but still far higher than the five-year average of US$4.
68
.

 

　　From 2023/24 to 2031/32, the market trend is to steadily decrease the planting area, and the yield per unit area continues to increase
.
Therefore, wheat production will increase steadily and slightly
.
During this period, domestic consumption will remain relatively stable, and due to global demand growth, wheat exports will slightly increase to 975 million cattails
.
The ending stocks of wheat in 2031/32 are expected to gradually recover to 749 million cats
.
The wheat stock usage ratio in 2031/32 is expected to be 35%, which is much higher than the 28% expected in 2021/22
.
During this period, wheat farm prices are expected to fall, eventually reaching US$5.
25 per bus from 2029/30 to 2031/32
.

 

　　International outlook

 

　　The forecast data of global wheat production in 2021/22 is lowered

 

　　Global wheat production in 2021/22 is expected to be lowered by 600,000 tons from October, but it will still reach a record 755.
3 million tons
.
Wheat production in the EU and the UK is lower than last month, mainly based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture or statistical agencies of these countries
.
The increase in production in Russia partially offset the decrease in production in the aforementioned countries
.
This month, Russia’s wheat production is raised by 2 million tons to 74.
5 million tons, which is based on the latest harvest data
.

 

　　The EU wheat production in 2021/22 is expected to be 138.
4 million tons, down 1 million tons from last month's forecast
.
French wheat production is reduced by 700,000 tons to 37 million tons, due to excessive rainfall during the harvest period, resulting in a decrease in yield by 0.
14 tons to 7.
07 tons per hectare
.
German wheat production was revised down by 500,000 tons to 21.
6 million tons due to excessive rainfall during harvest
.
Lithuania’s wheat production is revised down by 200,000 tons to 2.
3 million tons
.
Estonia cuts 70,000 tons to 11 million tons
.
The Romanian Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is still at or above the average level, so yields have been raised
.
Outside the EU, UK wheat production was revised down by 700,000 tons to 14.
3 million tons due to yield adjustments
.

 

　　Russia’s wheat production is raised by 2 million tons to 74.
5 million tons, as the increase in unit yield offsets the impact of the reduction in harvested area, with spring wheat and winter wheat output raised by 1 million tons respectively
.
Russian wheat yield is still expected to decrease by 9% from the previous year, at 2.
7 tons per hectare
.

 

　　In countries other than exporting countries, wheat production in Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and Uzbekistan has been lowered
.
During the wheat growth period of 2021/22, Kyrgyzstan's temperature was higher than normal and insufficient rainfall resulted in a reduction of 145,000 tons of production to 385,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39%
.
Excessive rainfall in Turkey led to a decline in yield, and production was reduced by 250,000 tons to 16.
25 million tons
.
Uzbekistan's wheat yield decreased by 11% year-on-year due to low rainfall in most of the central and southern regions, resulting in insufficient soil moisture
.
Sudan's output in 2020/21 is raised by 175,000 tons to 900,000 tons
.
Uzbekistan's wheat production was revised down by 310,000 tons to 6.
2 million tons
.

 

　　The expected value of global wheat consumption in 2021/22 is lowered

 

　　In 2021/22, global wheat consumption was slightly lowered by 371,000 tons to 787.
4 million tons, mainly due to the reduction of 1.
25 billion tons of wheat feed and other consumption
.
For feed production, global wheat prices are relatively more expensive
.
For example, China's domestic wheat and corn prices in October 2021 are basically the same for the first time since October 2020
.

 

　　The EU's wheat feed and other consumption is lowered by 1 million tons to 45 million tons due to declining production, strong exports and increased domestic feed supplies
.
The reduction in domestic production has resulted in a reduction of 200,000 tons of feed and other consumption of wheat in the UK to 7.
5 million tons, and a reduction of 200,000 tons to 1.
6 million tons in Uzbekistan
.
The feed and other consumption of wheat in Ukraine is reduced by 200,000 tons to 3.
1 million tons because export prices are still competitive
.
These declines were partially offset by increases in Russia, Turkey and Iran (up 500,000 tons each)
.
Some problems in the quality of domestic wheat in Turkey have caused more wheat to be used for feed and other purposes
.
The feed and other consumption of wheat in 2020/21 have also been adjusted upwards.
The increase in Iran has been offset to a certain extent by the decrease in Uzbekistan
.

 

　　The global food, seed and industrial use (FSI) of wheat remained basically unchanged (slightly reduced by 37,000 tons to 626.
7 million tons)
.
Among them, Uzbekistan and the United Kingdom's FSI consumption are reduced by 200,000 tons, but Algeria is adjusted upward by 100,000 tons (to 11.
3 million tons), and Iran is also adjusted upward by 100,000 tons (to 15.
7 million tons)
.

 

　　Based on the unreported data for the local market year of 2021/22, the 787.
4 million tons of global wheat consumption data in this month's supply and demand report was revised as follows
.
The unreported trade data was raised by 500,000 tons to 2.
1 million tons because the increase in exports was higher than the increase in imports
.
By subtracting the updated unreported trade data from the consumption data in the supply and demand report, the adjusted total wheat consumption data for the 2021/22 season is 785.
3 million tons
.

 

　　Although production is down, global trade data is up

 

　　Although international wheat prices have risen, the enthusiasm of importing countries for bidding has not diminished.
Therefore, this month's global wheat trade data for 2021/22 has been revised up by 3.
2 million tons to 205 million tons
.
Despite the decline in EU production, the EU is expected to export 36.
5 million tons of wheat because of the strong export pace
.
With the increase in international wheat prices, India’s wheat exports are in sufficient supply.
This month, India’s wheat exports have been raised by 750,000 tons to 5.
3 million tons, the highest level since 2013/14
.
Russian wheat exports have also been revised upwards, because of the increase in production, import demand from Iran, Turkey and Algeria has increased
.

 

　　In 2021/22, Iran and Turkey's wheat imports were raised by 1 million tons each.
Because of the strong pace of imports from Russia and the decline in domestic production, the two countries expanded their imports to meet demand growth
.
Due to the active bidding activities and the pace of imports so far, Algeria is expected to import 7.
5 million tons of wheat, which is 500,000 tons higher than last month’s forecast
.
Saudi wheat imports are raised by 500,000 tons to 3.
5 million tons, as imports by the national procurement agency increased by 20% year-on-year
.

 

　　Due to strong exports, global wheat ending stocks are still tight

 

　　The global wheat ending stocks in 2021/22 were further reduced by 1.
4 million tons to 275.
8 million tons
.
The ending stocks of major exporting countries were revised down by 1.
6 million tons, as the pace of exports remained strong
.

 

　　Argentine stocks are reduced by 200,000 tons to 2.
5 million tons, Australia stocks are reduced by 500,000 tons to 3.
6 million tons, Ukrainian stocks are reduced by 300,000 tons to 1.
4 million tons, and EU stocks are reduced by 1 million tons to 9.
7 million tons
.

 

　　Russian inventories are raised by 500,000 tons to 10 million tons due to the increase in production
.

 

　　India's wheat ending stocks were lowered by 1 million tons to 27.
8 million tons, but it will still be the highest in history
.
Other countries with lower inventories include: British wheat stocks are reduced by 300,000 tons to 1.
7 million tons, and Uzbekistan's stocks are reduced by 100,000 tons to 1.
5 million tons
.
In addition, the stocks of some importing countries have been raised.
Among them, Algeria raised 400,000 tons to 5.
4 million tons; Iran raised 800,000 tons to 4.
8 million tons; Nigeria raised 100,000 tons to 500,000 tons; Saudi Arabia raised 500,000 tons to 5.
4 million tons.
3.
1 million tons
.