U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts tight supply of corn and wheat

Lead: the U.S Department of Agriculture released its first field survey assessment of most spring crops on Friday For example, the corn output assessed on August 1 was 9.27 billion Pu ears, down from 9.97 billion Pu ears last year The national average production forecast is 133.9 Pu ear / acre, which is significantly lower than the evaluation trend of 137 Pu ear / acre However, it is obvious that this year's output will meet the market demand first and there will be a consumption gap The U.S Department of agriculture also predicted a booming market demand At present, the export of corn in this quarter is 1875 million Pu ears, and the export volume in the next quarter will rebound to 2 billion Pu ears The demand for feed corn keeps strong because the number of pigs increases and live cattle are full of livestock In addition, with the opening of new plants, corn for ethanol will grow significantly in the next quarter Transfer inventory may be reduced by 500-600 million Pu type ears The soybean yield is estimated at 2.87 billion Pu type ears, which is the high level of the predicted value So far, soybean production has been affected by adverse growth conditions, but there is still hope for high yield if the weather is ideal in August The August USDA soybean yield estimate was 38.7 Pu per acre However, the assessment is only slightly higher than the consumption forecast, so the transit inventory in 2001-02 can only slightly increase to 300 million PU Cotton yield evaluation reached the peak of prediction, which was far greater than the level implied by weekly crop grade Although the condition grade of cotton is lower than last year, the yield per acre is estimated to be 670 pounds, far higher than last year's 632 pounds With weak demand for cotton, cotton production will flood the market The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that transit inventory will grow from 5.6 million packages at the end of 2000-01 to more than 8 million packages at the end of 2001-02 This is assumed to happen under the condition of large export growth in the next quarter, while the hope of large export growth is slim If the export is close to the level of 2000-01, the transit inventory may exceed 9 million packages Next quarter's export sales are expected to start well.