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USDA Feed Outlook Report

 Last Update: 2022-10-19
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WASHINGTON, Oct.
17; This month, it cut its forecast for total U.
S.
feed production in 2022 by 1 million mt as severe summer drought in the central U.
S.
led to reduced
corn and sorghum yields.
This month, the 2022/23 U.
S.
corn production forecast was lowered by 49 million bushels to 13.
895 billion bushels, as yields were lowered by 0.
6 bushels to 171.
9 bushels per acre, while the harvested area remained unchanged
.
U.
S.
sorghum production estimates were lowered by 7 million bushels to 245 million bushels, which would be the lowest since 2011/12, as yields were lowered by 1.
4 bushels per acre
.

The 2022/23 US corn use estimate was revised down by 125 million bushels as corn use and exports in the ethanol sector were revised down to outpace the increase in feed and other uses
.
US sorghum use in 2022/23 was revised down by 10 million bushels as export supplies declined
further due to reduced production.
U.
S.
corn ending stocks are expected to be 1.
172 billion bushels, down 47 million bushels from September, and sorghum ending stocks are expected to be 23 million bushels, up 3 million bushels
from the previous month.

Global coarse grain production estimates for 2022/23 have been revised down by 3.
8 million mt to 1,459.
8 million mt, mainly due to downward revisions to maize outlooks in the EU and Serbia, and lower barley production in Argentina and millet
in India.
The decline was offset to some extent
by a slight upward revision in the European Union's barley production and an upward revision in India's maize production.
This month, the US corn export forecast for 2022/23 was cut down.

U.
S.
domestic outlook

U.
S.
corn production was revised down again due to lower yields

The USDA's National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (NASS) estimates U.
S.
corn production in 2022/23 at 13.
895 billion bushels, 49 million bushels lower than last month's estimate and 1.
22 billion bushels
less than last year.
The 2022/23 U.
S.
corn yield was lowered this month to 171.
9 bushels per acre, 0.
6 bushels per acre lower than in September, and down 4.
8 bushels/acre year-on-year, as widespread summer drought constrained yield potential
across the western corn belt.
Continued drought from the western Great Plains to the eastern Midwest late in the corn growing season, further affecting yields, particularly in Nebraska and Kansas
.

Minnesota and Illinois saw the largest year-over-year increases in corn production in 2022/23, up 46.
8 million bushels and 23.
8 million bushels, respectively, from the previous year, as above-average
yields in those two states were produced.

Major corn producing states that lowered yields this month include: South Dakota cut 8 bushels to 130 bushels per acre; Mississippi lowered 5 bushels to 167 bushels per acre; Texas cut 4 bushels to 100 bushels per acre
.
Major corn producing states that saw their yields up this month include: Illinois raised 6 bushels to 210 bushels per acre; Missouri raised 2 bushels to 151 bushels per acre
.

By state, the largest year-on-year decline in corn production in 2022/23 was in the highlands, with Nebraska down 255 million bushels year-on-year due to a reduction in harvested acreage and a 22 bushels year-on-year decline in yields to 172 bushels per acre, down 4 bushels
from the previous month.
Kansas corn production decreased by 158 million bushels year-over-year as yields decreased by 24 bushels year-on-year to 115 bushels per acre, and planted area decreased by 250,000 acres to 5.
15 million acres
.

In the two largest corn producing regions, Iowa and Indiana, corn yields were lower than last year because of end-of-season drought affecting yields and reduced
harvest acreage in Indiana.
Iowa's corn yield is expected to be 200 bushels per acre, down 4 bushels year-on-year, and the state's total corn production is 2.
49 billion bushels, down 49.
8 million bushels
year-on-year.
Indiana yield is expected to be 187 bushels per acre, down 4% year-over-year, and production will fall to 944 million bushels, down 83.
3 million bushels
year-over-year.

Harvest progress varies from place to place in the corn belt

As of early October, the U.
S.
corn harvest continued to advance
steadily.
The Crop Progress Report shows that as of Oct.
9, the U.
S.
corn harvest was 31 percent complete, slightly behind the same period last year but broadly in line
with the five-year average of 30 percent.
Cold and rainy weather in the Midwest, coupled with late spring planting, adversely affected harvest schedules in Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio; Persistently dry weather accelerated harvests in Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and South Dakota
.

US corn ending stocks for 2021/22 and 2022/23 were lowered, prices were raised and exports were lowered

U.
S.
corn ending stocks for 2021/22 were estimated at 1.
377 billion bushels, up 11 percent year-on-year, but still below the five-year average and 148 million bushels below the forecast in the September supply and demand report, resulting in an upward revision of 115 million bushels
in corn feed and other uses, based on the quarterly inventory report released Sept.
30.
The average price of maize farms in 2021/22 rose sharply to $6/bushel, $1.
47 higher than the previous year, resulting in a decrease of 276 million bushels in exports, a 10%
decrease from 2020/21.
Maize use in the ethanol industry increased by 295 million bushels, or 6 percent, to 5,328 million bushels
in 2021/22.

The 2022/23 corn ending stocks estimate was lowered by 47 million bushels to 1.
172 billion bushels, which would be the lowest level since 2012/13, as stocks carried forward from the previous year were lowered
to 1.
377 billion bushels.
Extremely tight supply in 2022/23, combined with historically low levels of the Mississippi River due to inland logistics difficulties, and strong global demand for feed supported average corn farm prices in 2022/23 to reach their highest level since 2012/13 at $6.
80 per bushel
.

US corn exports for 2022/23 have been revised down by 125 million bushels to 2.
15 billion bushels due to a sluggish start to the year and the allocation of demand
by international buyers amid low certainty and high prices.
Total maize exports in 2021/22 were 2.
471 billion bushels, 10%
lower than the record level of 2.
747 billion bushels in 2020/21.

Food, seed and industrial use (FSI) for maize in 2022/23 was cut by 50 million bushels this month, while feed and other consumption was raised by 50 million bushels
due to lower ethanol production.

The drought has led to continued downward revisions to sorghum production

Sorghum production estimates for 2022/23 have been revised down by 7 million bushels to 245 million bushels from September
due to lower yields.
NASS lowered the national average sorghum yield by 1.
4 bushels to 44.
6 bushels per acre, which would be the lowest level
since 1964/65.
Severe summer drought throughout the Great Plains affected yield potential
from Nebraska to Texas.

Declining yields and acreage will lead to sharp reductions in sorghum production in Kansas and Texas, the two largest sorghum producing regions in the
United States.
Kansas' sorghum yield forecast was revised down 4 percent from September to 43 bushels per acre, down 35 bushels
from last year.
Texas' yield was cut by 2 bushels to 52 bushels per acre this month, down 15 percent
from 2021/22.
NASS forecasts that total sorghum production in Kansas and Texas will fall 50 percent from last year, to 133 million bushels and 57.
2 million bushels
, respectively.

Sorghum use estimates for 2022/23 have been revised down by 10 million bushels from the previous month to 275 million bushels, as limited supply constraints on export potential
.
U.
S.
sorghum ending stocks for 2022/23 are expected to be 23 million bushels, up 3 million bushels
from the previous month.
The average price estimate for sorghum farms for 2022/23 remains unchanged at US$
6.
65 per bushel.

This month, FSI use for sorghum in 2021/22 was raised by 5 million bushels, as ethanol production increased in the summer and feed use decreased by 9 million bushels
.
Sorghum ending stocks for 2021/22 remained unchanged at 53 million bushels, and the average farm price was estimated at $5.
94, up 4 cents
from the previous month.

Barley production in the United States has resumed growth and prices have continued to climb

Based on the Sept.
30 annual report on small cereal production, barley production for 2022/23 was raised by 16 million bushels to 174 million bushels this month, as yields were raised by 5.
4 bushels to 71.
7 bushels/acre, 19 percent higher than last year's drought-reduced yield, but still well below trend yields as yield potential declined
due to planting delays in the northern plains.

Total US barley use in 2022/23 was raised by 5 million bushels to 167 million bushels, roughly the same
as the total of 164 million bushels in 2021/22.
Feed and other usage of barley in 2022/23 was raised by 20 million bushels to 30 million bushels, while FSI consumption was reduced by 15 million bushels to 130 million bushels
.
Despite the increase in the supply of barley in the new season, record prices constrained demand in the malting industry, and total consumption was relatively stable
.
According to beer production data released by the U.
S.
Department of the Treasury's Bureau of Tobacco and Alcohol Tax and Trade, the FSI usage of barley in the United States in 2021/22 was raised by 22 million bushels to 137 million bushels
.

The ending barley stockpile estimate for 2022/23 was revised up by 16 million bushels to 63 million bushels, well above the previous year's drought-related stocks but still the second lowest level
since 2011/12.
The average price of all barley farms in the US rose by $0.
35 to a record $7.
25 per bushel in 2022/23, as the price of malting barley rose to a record high
of $7.
54 in October from $6.
59 in September.
The record high barley prices were due to tight supply, strong domestic demand and overall higher
global cereal prices.

2022/23 oat production was revised upwards

According to the NASS Small Grains Annual Report, oat production in 2022/23 is expected to be 58 million bushels, 5 million bushels
higher than the forecast in the September Supply and Demand Report.
Yields were slightly lowered to 64.
8 bushels per acre from 66.
1 bushels last month, but the harvest area was raised by 100,000 acres to 900,000 acres
.
Oat imports were cut by 5 million bushels to 85 million bushels as the U.
S.
Bureau of Survey and Statistics reported in October that imports slowed
.

Oat feed and other usage is expected to be 60 million bushels in 2022/23, up 30%
from last year.
Ending stocks are expected to be 30 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from September and the lowest level
since 2013/14.
The average farm price for this year's oat season is expected to be $5.
70 per bushel, down $
0.
10 from September.

International outlook

Global coarse grain production forecasts have been revised downward

Global coarse grain production estimates for 2022/23 have been revised down by 3.
8 million mt to 1,459.
8 million mt, mainly due to poor maize prospects in the EU and Serbia, and lower
output of barley in Argentina and millet in India.
The decline was offset to some extent
by a slight upward revision in the European Union's barley production and an upward revision in India's maize production.
US coarse grain production in 2022/23 was revised down by 1 million mt to 364.
11 million mt
.

EU corn production is expected to be 56.
2 million mt, down 14.
6 million mt from last year.

Severe drought and heat affected maize yields in several member countries, with Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria seeing the largest
declines.
In Serbia – which is not part of the EU but shares borders with Romania and Bulgaria – similar dry weather caused the country's corn production to be revised down to 5.
4 million tonnes
.

The dry weather in September also affected the barley crop in Argentina, which is currently in a critical growing phase
.
More than 94% of Argentina's barley is produced in the province of
Buenos Aires.
The lack of rainfall has led to below-average crop conditions, which are also significantly worse than last year
.
Barley production was revised down to 5.
1 million tonnes, 4%
lower than the previous month.

In India's main maize-producing states of Kamataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, good rainfall has encouraged farmers to plant more maize, with India's corn production forecast revised up to 32 million mt
.

Coarse grain usage was revised down, and inventories outside the United States were lowered

Global coarse grain use in 2022/23 was revised down by 5.
7 million tonnes to 1,466.
9 million tonnes
.
While domestic use in the United States was slightly upward this month, coarse grain use outside the United States was lowered
.
Feed use was revised down in a number of countries, with Ukraine seeing the largest decline, followed by India and Iran
.
Coarse grain feed usage in the EU remained unchanged as adjustments to maize and barley offset each other, with corn feed reduced by 1 million tonnes and barley feed by 1 million tonnes
.

Corn feed and other usage in Ukraine was revised downwards as the pace of maize exports is expected to accelerate, reducing feed and other usage
.
The EU maize production reduction will limit feed and other uses and FSI use, while the increase in barley production will boost feed use
.
Iran's corn imports have been lowered, affecting corn supply, and the feed consumption of corn has been reduced
.

Corn ending stocks outside the U.
S.
were revised down by 2.
2 million mt as inventories in
Ukraine and China were lowered.
Higher exports from Ukraine and lower opening inventories were offset to some extent by lower feed use, resulting in lower corn ending stocks
in Ukraine.
China's 2021/22 corn imports were lowered, resulting in lower opening inventories and a corresponding downward revision
of ending stocks.
Declines in corn stocks in Ukraine and China were partially offset
by increases in Brazil.

Global maize trade figures for 2022/23 have been revised slightly upward

In 2022/23 (October to September), global maize trade was revised up by 100,000 tonnes to 184.
8 million tonnes
.
Ukraine's corn exports in 2022/23 were upgraded by 2.
5 million mt to 15.
5 million mt; India's corn exports were revised upwards as production increased
.
Exports from the United States and Serbia were lowered
.

Corn imports from the European Union and the United States increased the most
this month.
The EU's maize import estimates for 2021/22 and 2022/23 have been revised up by 1.
5 million mt and 1 million mt
respectively.
While 2021/22 has ended and import growth is supported by trade data, the upward revision to maize imports for 2022/23 reflects lower maize production forecasts
for many parts of the EU.
US corn imports in 2022/23 will increase
due to the lower corn production outlook.

US corn exports for 2021/22 are finalized and corn exports for 2022/23 are expected to decrease

According to data from the US Bureau of Statistics and Survey in September, the US corn export estimate for 2021/22 (October to September) remained unchanged at 63 million mt, while US sorghum exports for 2021/22 were revised down by 100,000 mt to 7.
3 million mt
.

Downward revisions in U.
S.
corn supplies, coupled with a continued strengthening U.
S.
dollar, have made U.
S.
corn less
competitive in the global market.
The outlook for U.
S.
feed exports is also revised down from the previous month, as the outlook for U.
S.
feed exports is expected to be weaker than in the previous two years
due to reduced price competitiveness and logistical challenges.
U.
S.
corn exports for 2022/23 are expected to be 57 million mt, down 2.
5 million mt from the previous month as the pace of export sales continues to decline
.

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