USDA: analysis report on Japanese pig beef market

Introduction: the following is the analysis and forecast report of the U.S Department of agriculture on Japanese beef and pork market in September: summarizing the beef consumption and import level of Japan, it is expected to get rid of BSE crisis by the end of 2002 and recover to near historical average level The Japanese beef market is expected to rise in 2003 Consumption will grow by 7% and import demand will rise by 17% But the possible emergency restrictions on beef imports in 2003 will hinder imports In the late of 2002, the increasing pork demand was relieved Pork consumption is expected to decline by 2% and imports by about 2% as BSE issues subside In 2003, Japan's pork import emergency restrictions are not expected to make much progress Looking forward to the Japanese beef market in 2002-03, the recovery of Japanese beef market this summer is much better than expected It is estimated that the overall beef consumption in 2002 is slightly lower than that of last year, with a total of 1.36 million tons It was previously predicted that monthly consumption of beef would return to the average level in the fourth quarter of 2002 In 2002, the import volume was 17% (800000 tons) lower than last year's level, and the monthly average consumption level is expected to return to normal by the end of the year At present, BSE testing project in Japan is in operation, and domestic beef production is expected to increase by 14% to 520000 tons Beef cattle that failed to come out last year due to the mad cow disease crisis were slaughtered at the beginning of this year, resulting in an 11% increase in beef slaughter in the first half of 2002 In 2003, the market recovered from the BSE crisis is expected to exceed the trough In 2003, the total beef consumption will be 7% higher than the forecast value of 2002, reaching 1.45 million tons The growth of beef consumption is likely to stimulate the increase of import demand, which is expected to rise 17% to 935000 tons Japan's beef import emergency restrictions will reduce imports in 2003 The possible import emergency restrictions in 2003 will increase the import tariff of beef from 38.5% to 50%, which will hinder imports and slow down the recovery of the market The first is chilled beef, which will affect U.S and Australian beef suppliers, which account for 98% of Japan's beef import market The import demand for low value parts of chilled beef will increase, while the demand for high-grade parts will shrink At the same time, the middle grade domestic beef is more competitive than the imported beef, attracting Japanese retailers If import emergency restrictions are implemented, frozen beef imports will increase Because frozen meat can be stored and purchased in advance The Japanese rely on imported beef, often buying and storing imported beef before the implementation of import emergency restrictions Due to the sharp decline of 02 import volume, the import emergency restrictions may lead to a vicious circle Because of the sharp drop of beef import in the first quarter of 2002, the import ceiling in the first quarter of 2003 was relatively low It is predicted that if beef imports return to the average level in the quarter, it will trigger import emergency restrictions, and an emergency tariff of 50% may be imposed on imported beef as early as July 1, 2003 Once implemented, the tariff will remain in effect until March 31, 2004 The calculation of the number of imports (i.e "tipping points") that determine whether or not to trigger an emergency beef import restriction is based on the number of customs clearance in the first quarter of each fiscal year According to this, the critical points of the first quarter of fiscal year 03 are: 63563 tons of chilled beef and 67640 tons of frozen beef, which are obviously quite low compared with the average imports of 80000 tons and 90000 tons in the previous year Mad cow disease shrouded the market Japanese consumers remained wary in the first half of 2002, compared with last year, and the total beef consumption in the first half of 2002 decreased by 20% However, consumers, especially housewives, remain wary of beef due to mad cow disease and counterfeit label scandals From January to June 2002, the average consumption of households decreased The consumption of pork and chicken increased Due to the strong US dollar, weak demand and large inventory, beef imports fell in 2002 In the first half of 2002, frozen beef imports fell by 36%, to 112801 tons Japanese food service industry's sluggish demand caused by BSE has greatly affected imports Demand for frozen beef, such as Japanese beef noodles, Korean barbecue chains, hamburger fast-food chains, sales are low In addition, demand for imported beef has come under pressure from a huge stock of frozen beef, which was caused by a slump in demand later last year In the first half of 2002, the end of month balance of beef stock had dropped by 14% Despite the unfavorable market conditions, the price of frozen beef in the United States is still optimistic in 2002 The import of frozen beef in the United States dropped by 25%, a slight drop compared with other suppliers Positive markets and a faster than expected recovery in the food service industry have also prevented further declines in frozen products in the United States And there are signs that, as of July 2002, the turnover of beef bowl noodles and Korean barbecue shops has recovered to 85% of that before the outbreak of BSE Consumption is recovering Beef sales are up this summer It is said that due to the continuous hot weather in July and August, the demand for barbecue beef in both the food service industry and the retail industry increased sharply Retail chains expanded their options to supply packaged beef for barbecue, most of which were imported from the United States And McDonald's promotion, 59 yen (50 cents) a hamburger, has successfully attracted customers and increased sales Other fast food chains are expected to follow suit, boosting demand for Australian grass fed beef Outlook of Japanese pork market in 2002 after BSE was found in Japan last year, the demand for pork to replace beef increased rapidly However, with the increase of beef demand in the second half of 2002, the demand for fast-growing pork eased The consumption of pork in 2002 is expected to be 2.2 million tons, slightly higher than that in 2001 In contrast to beef, monthly consumption of pork will gradually return to "normal" level by the end of the year Pork imports are expected to reach 978000 tons in 2002, down 3% from the record level in 2001 The emergency restrictions on pork import implemented on August 1, 2002 will greatly reduce the import volume in the second half of 2002, thus offsetting the excessive import in the first half of 2002 Considering the import emergency restrictions, it is said that many importers have already bought raw pork for the market after July this year Trade data initially showed that the import volume in July was 148500 tons (of which 104000 tons had been cleared), up 20% year on year Due to the shrinking demand for "substitution", the import demand is expected to weaken in 2003 Due to the dried up demand for "substitute" beef, the consumption of pork is expected to decrease by 2% to 2.175 million tons in 2003 In 2003, the import demand is expected to decrease by 2%, 964000 tons, which reflects the weakness of the overall demand It is expected that the price of domestic pork in Japan will be weak in 2003, and the production of pork will continue to shrink, with the output falling by 1% to 1.21 million tons Weak demand and low price of domestic pork will restrict the sale of imported refrigerated pork in 2003 With the recovery of beef market, the demand for imported refrigerated pork in 2003 will decrease The expected low wholesale price makes domestic pork more competitive in retail and food service industries than imported pork In addition, the rules of meat labeling implemented by wholesalers and retailers also put imported pork at a disadvantage In a recent spate of meat labeling scandals, some imported chilled pork was sold as domestic meat Although the phenomenon has been curbed, it still curbs the demand for imported pork In the first half of 2002, the demand for pork was strong Japanese consumers' demand for safe beef substitutes led to strong demand for pork in retail and food service industries In the first half of 2002, the overall consumption of pork in Japan increased by 7% The average household consumption increased by 8% and the consumption value increased by 11% The strong demand for edible pork keeps the wholesale price of carcass pig high The first half of this year saw a 3% drop in slaughtering, leading to a tight supply of pork early this year The beef labeling scandal has led consumers to seek meat products with clear domestic labels, thus boosting the demand for pork During this period, the import of pork remained strong The monthly import of chilled pork increased by 5%, and the increased supply came from the United States and Canada The sharp increase in pork imports triggered import emergency restrictions With the expiration of the last import emergency restrictions on March 31, a large number of frozen pork imports poured into the Japanese market As the total amount of pork imports in the first quarter of FY02 (April June) exceeded the limit, the import emergency restrictions came into effect automatically from August 1 The high entry price makes the imported pork lose the competitive advantage in price It is expected that the quantity of chilled pork from the United States and Canada will decline, and the monthly import of frozen pork will also fall (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: