US soybean exports exceed expectations

Introduction: so far in 2001 / 02 market year, US soybean export has made rapid progress Therefore, market participants speculate whether USDA is still likely to raise its US soybean export forecast for 2001 / 02 At present, the U.S Department of agriculture forecasts exports of 1 billion bushels, which has reached a record level In the December supply and demand report, USDA's soybean export forecast increased by 20 million bushels, higher than last year's total, reaching a record level But so far, U.S soybean exports are 4.5% higher than in 2000, while the U.S Department of agriculture's forecast is only 0.2% higher While bulls think exports will rise, economists have looked at historical data According to bill Tierney, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, 57% of USDA's supply and demand reports in December underestimated the final U.S soybean exports in the past 23 years In those years when exports were undervalued, the average was 6% In terms of this year, this means that the current export expectation of 1 billion bushels is 60 million bushels lower than the possible value Since 1975, by the beginning of December, an average of 54% of total export projects had been completed As of last week, US export contract sales have reached 64% of this year's export target From 1975 to now, only two years of export progress have reached such a speed, namely 1997 and 1983 In 1983, the U.S Department of agriculture underestimated U.S soybean exports in December, but in 1997, there was no underestimate