U.S. experts predict that soybean prices will rise by $6.50

Introduction: U.S economists predict that in the next 1-1.5 months, U.S economists predict that in the next 1-1.5 months, soybean prices will rise by $6.50 WGC odj Chicago, Aug 13: according to agricultural economist William Tierney of Kansas State University, the USDA's supply and demand report in August will pave the way for the rise of soybean prices Due to the decrease of soybean production and ending inventory, the market will respond sensitively to any possibility of production reduction In addition, WGC's production report for August is based on the crop condition on August 1, and since then, the crop condition has become worse, so the production may further reduce, lower than the August forecast of the U.S Department of agriculture In Monday's report, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted U.S soybean production at 2628 million bushels According to his own yield model, WGC Tierney predicted that since August 1, soybean yield per acre in the United States has declined by 0.2 bushels In the August report, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that soybean yield per acre would be 36.5 bushels, which, if accurate, would be the lowest since 1995 The unit yield of that year was 35.3 bushels per bushel In addition, the ending inventory is 75 million bushels lower than the forecast in July, and the decreasing range of the ending inventory is larger than the expected range in the industry Therefore, the current inventory to consumption ratio is only 5.8%, lower than last year's 6.6%, and also lower than the 10-year average ratio of 10.2% WGC therefore raised annual average soybean prices to $5.60 per bushel, up $1.25 from last year's average of $4.35 If the forecast is accurate, it will be the highest price since 1997 / 98 ($6.45) According to WGC Tierney's own data, soybean prices will peak earlier this year, or in August, or in September, or in the late 2002 / 03 period, that is, in July or August 2003, they will see this year's low Therefore, in the next 30 to 45 days, the soybean price in November is expected to rise to around $6.50 However, if the soybean yield is significantly lower than the current forecast level, the soybean price in November will break the $7 mark In the short term, that is to say, in the next 7 to 10 days, if the period price breaks through $5.95, the next target will be $6.40.