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    Home > Food News > Food Articles > Urner Barry: The price of prawns is expected to continue to rise, and the shipping problem may continue to worsen

    Urner Barry: The price of prawns is expected to continue to rise, and the shipping problem may continue to worsen

    • Last Update: 2021-09-10
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Since the beginning of this year, the United States has become a hot-sale place for Ecuadorian white shrimp.
    Whether it is shelled shrimp or shelled and de-threaded products, the demand in the United States has driven the overall price increase.
    Although the price of Ecuadorian shrimp has stabilized in the past two weeks, analysis People believe that based on the potential of US demand, there is still room for continued growth in the next few months
    .
     
    Angel Rubio, a senior analyst at Urner Barry (UB), a U.
    S.
    food market agency, said: "Ecuadorian shrimp prices have just stabilized in the past two weeks, giving the U.
    S.
    market a break.
    This is good news for the supply chain.

    .
    "
     
    "UB data shows that due to the continuous increase in shrimp prices in the past few months, the profits of exporters have even reached the level of the EMS (early death syndrome) period in 2013.

    But the good times are not long, part of the export profits are offset by rising costs, logistics, Labor, as well as some other external factors, are causing continuous financial pressure on the supply chain.
    For example, restaurants need to pay higher salaries for employees, and processing plants are facing labor shortages and high transportation costs
    .
    "
     
      "In addition, the premium generated by large-scale white shrimp has also declined.
    A large number of lead-in-shell products cannot be normally sold to China.
    If they are sold to the United States, the price will not rise
    .
    The surge in the US catering industry in the first half of the year helped prices rise, but this It is not a long-lasting positive factor
    .
    On the other hand, during the epidemic, the price gap between value-added products and raw materials has widened and reached an unprecedented level.

    UB analysis believes that the price of value-added shrimp products will continue to be strong until next year
    .
    "
     
      “Compared with China, one of the major advantages of the United States is the short shipping cycle
    .
    The shipping time from South America to US ports is only 14 days, and the logistics problems in the Americas are not as severe as those in Asian countries
    .
    Even if the market adjusts, Ecuadorian shrimps are still There is a lot of room for price competition
    .
    "
     
      "In the first half of this year, the export volume of Ecuadorian white shrimp to the U.
    S.
    increased by 90% year-on-year.
    It is worth mentioning that many products were still transferred from China
    .
    This has never been seen in history.
    Fortunately, U.
    S.
    demand has always been there.
    Prices are not going to plummet
    .
    In terms of supply cycle, imports will begin to decline after July, and prices are expected to rise again in the second half of the year
    .
    "
     
      "Before the epidemic, 25% of U.
    S.
    imported shrimp entered the retail channel, and catering, tourism and hotel demand accounted for 75%
    .
    The annual demand growth rate in the U.
    S.
    market was about 6%, and the catering growth rate was about 8%.
    However, after the epidemic, it shrank by 20%.
    The industry has become the savior of the shrimp industry
    .
    "
     
      "In 2019, the U.
    S.
    retail industry demand was about 415 million pounds, and in 2020 it will increase to 532 million pounds, and the proportion of retail demand will increase from 25% to 32%
    .
    "
     
      "In 2021, shrimp is the category with a larger price increase among seafood products.
    Under the background of the US economic stimulus policy, many people have spare money on hand and start to buy more high-value seafood.
    Shrimp just lacks substitutes, so Prices have risen sharply
    .
    "
     
      "Retail prices are also rising, but most consumers can still accept it.
    As long as the retailer thinks it is profitable, the cost increase will not care too much
    .
    "
     
      "The delta strain is spreading in the United States, and more consumers may return to home cooking
    .
    Although Ecuador continues to increase the supply of shelled shrimp, value-added products such as cooked shrimp and threaded shrimp are still the advantages of Asian suppliers
    .
    "
     
      "Global logistics problems are still eating away supply chain profits, and the next situation may be worse than it is now
    .
    We expect that the fourth quarter will ease, and freight rates may not drop too much, but at least there will be some positive signs
    .
    "
    U.
    S.
    prices
     
      Angel Rubio, a senior analyst at Urner Barry (UB), a U.
    S.
    food market agency, said: "Ecuadorian shrimp prices have just stabilized in the past two weeks, giving the U.
    S.
    market a break.
    This is good news for the supply chain.

    .
    "
     
      "UB data shows that due to the continuous increase in shrimp prices in the past few months, the profits of exporters have even reached the level of the EMS (early death syndrome) period in 2013.

    But the good times are not long, part of the export profits are offset by rising costs, logistics, Labor, as well as some other external factors, are causing continuous financial pressure on the supply chain.
    For example, restaurants need to pay higher salaries for employees, and processing plants are facing labor shortages and high transportation costs
    .
    "
     
      "In addition, the premium generated by large-scale white shrimp has also declined.
    A large number of lead-in-shell products cannot be normally sold to China.
    If they are sold to the United States, the price will not rise
    .
    The surge in the US catering industry in the first half of the year helped prices rise, but this It is not a long-lasting positive factor
    .
    On the other hand, during the epidemic, the price gap between value-added products and raw materials has widened and reached an unprecedented level.

    UB analysis believes that the price of value-added shrimp products will continue to be strong until next year
    .
    "
     
      “Compared with China, one of the major advantages of the United States is the short shipping cycle
    .
    The shipping time from South America to US ports is only 14 days, and the logistics problems in the Americas are not as severe as those in Asian countries
    .
    Even if the market adjusts, Ecuadorian shrimps are still There is a lot of room for price competition
    .
    "
     
      "In the first half of this year, the export volume of Ecuadorian white shrimp to the U.
    S.
    increased by 90% year-on-year.
    It is worth mentioning that many products were still transferred from China
    .
    This has never been seen in history.
    Fortunately, U.
    S.
    demand has always been there.
    Prices are not going to plummet
    .
    In terms of supply cycle, imports will begin to decline after July, and prices are expected to rise again in the second half of the year
    .
    "
     
      "Before the epidemic, 25% of U.
    S.
    imported shrimp entered the retail channel, and catering, tourism and hotel demand accounted for 75%
    .
    The annual demand growth rate in the U.
    S.
    market was about 6%, and the catering growth rate was about 8%.
    However, after the epidemic, it shrank by 20%.
    The industry has become the savior of the shrimp industry
    .
    "
     
      "In 2019, the U.
    S.
    retail industry demand was about 415 million pounds, and in 2020 it will increase to 532 million pounds, and the proportion of retail demand will increase from 25% to 32%
    .
    "
     
      "In 2021, shrimp is the category with a larger price increase among seafood products.
    Under the background of the US economic stimulus policy, many people have spare money on hand and start to buy more high-value seafood.
    Shrimp just lacks substitutes, so Prices have risen sharply
    .
    "
     
      "Retail prices are also rising, but most consumers can still accept it.
    As long as the retailer thinks it is profitable, the cost increase will not care too much
    .
    "
     
      "The delta strain is spreading in the United States, and more consumers may return to home cooking
    .
    Although Ecuador continues to increase the supply of shelled shrimp, value-added products such as cooked shrimp and threaded shrimp are still the advantages of Asian suppliers
    .
    "
     
      "Global logistics problems are still eating away supply chain profits, and the next situation may be worse than it is now
    .
    We expect that the fourth quarter will ease, and freight rates may not drop too much, but at least there will be some positive signs
    .
    "
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