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This month's aluminum price in the background of the peak season steadily climbed, after breaking through the 18,000 mark for the first time in mid-April, setting a new ten-year high after standing firmly on the 10,000 line to continue to impact upward, touching the 10,000 mark on the 30th, and finally closing at 18,990 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 10.
7%.
On the supply side, the overall supply side in April is expected to be lower than March, but it is still strong compared with previous years, with the overall slight decline to 3.
389 million tons, due to the impact of the two dual-control policies in Inner Mongolia in early March on electrolytic aluminum production capacity restrictions and the delay in the arrival of imported goods due to the blockage of the Suez Canal at the end of March
.
In addition, the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises will begin this month, and Baimine Debao plans to start three sections of 100,000 tons of production capacity this week, and Shaanxian Hengkang will also achieve partial production capacity in late April
.
On the demand side, in the spot market, downstream processors feared high sentiment in the early April, and the flow of goods was not high, which lowered the market's expectations
for the peak season.
Compared with the same period of previous years, the downstream chose to stock up to cope with the peak season, and most enterprises this year chose to purchase
according to just demand.
Since late April, aluminum prices have soared to the sky above Wanba, and some processors have chosen to trade
at a high price due to excessive downstream inventory consumption and rising pressure on orders.
This year, the consumption of aluminum profiles used in domestic terminal real estate construction has increased significantly, and the export volume of aluminum profiles and aluminum foil has declined
compared with the same period of previous years due to the impact of international trade relations.
At present, overseas macros still dominate the trend of non-ferrous metals, inflation trading is still mainstream, and Yellen's subsequent revision of interest rate hike statements has also rekindled
market sentiment.
It is expected that aluminum prices will remain strong in early trading, and spot prices will remain flat or discounted, reflecting that consumption is relatively difficult to move up
.
Shanghai aluminum should still be used as a long variety allocation, its supply and demand contradiction is difficult to solve, and the dumping is still an uncertain factor, high aluminum prices make the terminal more uncomfortable, short-term is still mainly to buy down, chasing more risk
.
