Tragic soybeans: avoided Sino-US trade friction, but not the new crown

In 2018, China imported up to 400 million tons of oil, and China's external dependence reached 70 %; YgX imports more than $310 billion of chips in 2018, and China's external dependence is as high as 80 %; YgX However, China's dependence on soybean imports is even greater, and its external dependence is close to 90% YgX 1, two years ago
, the world's total soybean exports in 2017 were 147 million tons, of which the United States exported 59 million tons, the largest exporter; China imported 95.53 million tons of soybeans, of which 50.93 million tons (53%) from Brazil, 32.86 million tons (34%) from the United States, 6.58 million tons (7%) in Argentina and 2.57 million tons (3%) YgX
According to U.S authorities, u.S soybean production in 2017 was nearly 120 million tons and 59 million tons were exported, of which 32.86 million tons were exported to China About 300,000 U.S soybean farmers are located in central Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Indiana, Missouri and other central states, accounting for about 15 percent of u.S farms YgX at the same time, China's annual soybean imports have increased significantly, in the past 10 years, the average annual increase of about 6.5 million tons China's domestic soybean production in 2017 was 14.55 million tons, the highest in history less than 17 million tons YgXYgX sees from the data that if China doesn't import soybeans from the U.S., then even if it buys all the soybeans exported from other countries, it won't be enough for China's import needs YgXYgX July 6, 2018, the day of trade friction between China and the United States, a cargo ship called the Peak Pegau, loaded with 70,000 tons of U.S.-made soybeans, has been driving at super-high speed, hoping to arrive at Dalian Port by 12:01 p.m on the same day to avoid a 25 percent tariff YgX a million-ton ship, 25% tax, that is 40 million yuan If it is paid by the United States, American companies are likely to lose money; On Chinese social media, the screen is full of oil for soybeans Chinese is really good, and it's a good look at the tragic consequences of a trade war YgX, but unfortunately, it is said that the soybean boat in a hurry, still failed to arrive in time Because if it came ashore in the afternoon, it would be the first soybean cargo ship to pay taxes It's undoubtedly the worst cargo ship of 2018, but its story isn't over yet According to the latest report in the Guardian, the cargo ship has been spinning around the waters near China for more than a month, neither entering China for delivery nor going too far, but looking at mainland China every day YgX this report also distributed a "Pegasus Peak" running track map, really in the sea, a few kilometers east, and then turn edgy to the west and then walk a few kilometers, it seems to be full of infinite expectations, waiting for things to turn around According to the report, the hapless cargo ship belonged to JPMorgan Asset Management and the soybeans on board belonged to a Dutch agricultural import and export company But because of the unexpected situation, the owner of the goods pays $125,000 a day in rent and more than $400,000 a month YgX because if it goes into China for delivery, it has to pay tens of millions of dollars in taxes; turn around and return to the U.S., where U.S soybean prices are plummeting and the key is not to sell; and selling to other places like Europe, not to mention high transport costs, how can Europeans have such a big appetite? YgX, however, at the time, sino-US trade frictions did not affect the global supply and demand relationship of soybeans, but only the global distribution and trade structure of soybeans Trade frictionbetween China and the United States has led to a change in the international pattern of soybean trade U.S soybean exports to China have declined sharply since July 2018, while exports to the European Union, asia outside China and Oceania have increased sharply as a result of tariffs imposed on each other U.S soybean prices have fallen to their lowest level in about a decade On the other hand, as a result of China's increased soybean imports from Brazil and Argentina After becoming an alternative source of supply to China, the price of soybeans in Brazil rose sharply It has even occurred that Brazilian traders would buy soybeans from the United States and resell them to China as "second-way dealers" Or Brazilian and Argentine processors import soybeans from the United States and export processed soybean meal and soybean oil to China YgX 2, two years later how to overcome the food crisis
YgX from the import channels, China's soybean simport has been mainly from Brazil, the United States, Argentina and other countries YgX in the past two years, with the occurrence of Sino-US trade friction, China has further expanded the source of soybean imports, from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Ethiopia and other countries to import some soybeans Russia exports about 800,000 to 900,000 tons of soybeans to China each year YgX However, the international soybean and soybean market has recently experienced significant volatility There is no doubt that the impact of the outbreak is the main reason for the tightening or even panic in some countries over soybean supply expectations YgX After Brazil, Argentina due to the new coronal pneumonia outbreak prevention and control of the port and strike rumors, once triggered the international soybean and soybean meal market large fluctuations Recently, there was news that Russia would suspend soybean exports to China by June YgXYgX 3, to bean beans, but also tofu, but also soybean meal YgX future, the number of domestic soybeans may increase some, but not a lot, mainly by the land area restrictions Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean production area, now the area of soybeans has more than 40 million mu, the potential for further expansion is small Elsewhere, soybean sfarming is less profitable than other products (mainly corn) and is therefore unlikely to expand much YgX China's current soybean import stakes, if domestic production, the Northeast and North China all the land to come out, is not enough Furthermore, the low yield level of soybeans belongs to land-intensive products, and the import of soybeans is in line with the principle of comparative interests YgX is most alarming to prevent the rise in soy meal from causing a decline in meat production and resulting in larger meat price fluctuations Therefore, we should study in time how to support the development of domestic livestock and poultry industry, reduce the negative impact of soybean import and tax increase on livestock and poultry production, especially to prevent cost changes and pork production cycle overlap, resulting in a substantial increase in pork prices YgX in particular needs to be aware that it may not have a direct impact on soy products such as tofu, but rather on livestock and poultry production China's large imports of soybeans are due to strong demand for soybean meal Imported soybeans are not consumer goods, but are processed into vegetable oils and soybean meal Among them, soybean meal is the means of production, the most important source of protein feed The increase in the price of soybean meal will affect the enthusiasm of farmers to raise pigs and chickens If the price of soybean meal rises too high, causing a decrease in pork and poultry production, it will inevitably lead to higher prices for pork and poultry meat YgX if this change is superimposed with the cycle of cobweb fluctuations in the pig itself, it will have a great impact The elasticity of pork consumption in China is very small, and a large quantity change will cause a very large price change Between 2006 and 2007, pork production fell by 3.63 million tons, less than 8%, while the price increase was significant, at more than 60% YgX China soybean meal feed consumption has increased from 15 million tons in 2000 to 72.97 million tons in 2017, and has continued to grow steadily in recent years, with soybean meal feed consumption increasing by 7.95 percent in 2017 compared with 67.596 million tons in 2016, while soybean oil consumption increased by only 0.8 percent over the same period Second, the supply of soybean meal is large, is a stable source of protein feed raw materials, there is no other agricultural products to fill the gap in soybean meal, soybean oil can be replaced with vegetable oil, palm oil, the overall oil oversupply Finally, the supply of soybean meal has an impact on the pig, poultry, aquatic, cattle and sheep and other aquaculture industries, involving domestic meat and egg milk production, the impact is wider than the oil, so soybean meal is China's imported soybeans contained in the rigid demand YgX soybean meal as a high protein raw material, without detoxification can be used as feed, is an important raw material for livestock and poultry breeding According to statistics, more than 80% of soybean meal production is used for poultry and pig rearing each year The protein and amino acids in soybean meal are the main nutritional sources of poultry and pigs, and other meals are considered as substitutes only when the cost per unit of other meal protein is much lower than that of soybean meal YgX In recent years, soybean meal has also been widely used in aquaculture Soybean meal contains a variety of amino acids can fully meet the special needs of fish amino acids, due to overfishing, resulting in the world fishmeal production, soybean meal has begun to replace fishmeal, in aquaculture plays an increasingly important role YgXYgX so, the source of soybean imports is too single problem, we must pay attention to Since China's soybeans have long relied on imports, it has become a real problem to promote the diversification of soybean import sources Too much reliance on the US can not be too dependent on Brazil or too much on Russia In the event of an increase in the outbreak in these countries or a change in the political environment, it is bound to affect the increase in domestic soybean supply, which will cause serious losses YgX
(Author: Wang Xiwen)