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Affected by the tight supply during the maintenance season, since June, the domestic methyl methacrylate (MMA) market has bottomed out and the price has risen by about 1,000 yuan (ton price, the same below)
.
Entering July, the trend of tight supply has not changed, and the focus of market real orders continued to rise slightly
Supply is still tight
Supply is still tight supply is still tightJinlianchuang analyst Weng Yinyi introduced that in June, the MMA device ushered in the overhaul season, involving a production capacity of more than 600,000 tons/year, and the overall operating load remained low, helping the MMA market to get rid of the decline in May
.
According to statistics, Huiling Chemical’s 90,000-ton/year plant was shut down for maintenance from early May to late June; Heilongjiang Longxin’s 75,000-ton/year plant was shut down for maintenance from June to early July; Jilin Petrochemical’s 200,000-ton/year plant was shut down from June to early July.
From January 1st, it will shut down for maintenance for 50 days; Jiangsu Sierbang's 85,000-ton/year unit will shut down for 10 days in June; Shanghai Roma's 100,000-ton/year unit will shut down for maintenance from June 12 to 23
.
Weng Yinyi said that due to the shutdown of the installation and maintenance, the overall domestic MMA social inventory may remain at a normal low level from June to early July, which is good for the market and also strengthens the mentality of industry players.
The short-term MMA market is likely to rise and hardly fall.
There is no downside risk for the time being
.
Strong cost fluctuations
Strong cost volatilityStrong cost volatilityThe MMA raw material acetone market maintained a turbulent consolidation pattern
.
In July, the price of acetone rose by 75 yuan, but it was still at a low level
According to He Junsong, a salesperson of Jilin Petrochemical, the overall start-up load of the domestic phenol and ketone plant is 89.
72%
.
The main port of Jiangyin has 35,000 tons of acetone stocks, including 6,000 tons in Hengyang and 29,000 tons in Huaxi.
However, the supply of pure benzene, a raw material for acetone, continues to be tight.
The main companies raised their prices twice from June 25 to 29, and they are now at 8,350 yuan
.
Domestic inventories continue to decline, and Shandong's main pure benzene plant has recently shut down, and the quotations of local refinery companies have been significantly increased from 7,800 to 7,900 yuan to 8,400 to 8,500 yuan
The pure benzene market has risen rapidly and by a large margin.
Although it supports downstream market prices, it is not easy for downstream products to keep up
.
At present, only aniline maintains profitability, adipic acid is near the cost line, and mainstream downstream products such as styrene, phenol ketone, cyclohexanone, and caprolactam all lose money to varying degrees
According to industry insiders, the current price of acetone is already at a low point during the year.
As the price of raw materials rises, manufacturers have a strong price sentiment.
It is expected that the short-term acetone market may fluctuate strongly, and the possibility of a rebound is not ruled out, which is expected to bring cost support to the MMA market
.
Expected increase in demand
Expected increase in demand Expected increase in demand Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co.
, Ltd.
, believes that at the end of June, the transportation of hazardous chemicals in some areas was restricted, and some downstream terminal manufacturers failed to make up the raw material inventory
.
In July, due to the low inventory of their raw materials, some downstream manufacturers have a positive overall inquiry and purchasing atmosphere, and the intention of real orders to cover up positions is strong, and both trading parties are more active
Not only that, the epidemic in Southeast Asia has gradually worsened, causing some production plants in the relevant regions to temporarily reduce their load or even close.
Therefore, export orders in the relevant regions have been shelved or unacceptable
.
Affected by this, related foreign trade orders from Europe, America and Northeast Asia began to be transferred to China more
Wang Chunming introduced that many domestic MMA manufacturers have directly established long-term foreign trade order contracts with large foreign downstream terminal manufacturers or large foreign intermediaries
.
Related companies have a certain amount of export plans and arrangements every month, which reduces the pressure on the domestic market to a certain extent
Industry insiders have said that in the short term, the MMA market maintains an upward trend
.
However, as parking and maintenance companies resume production and operation one after another, the tight supply situation may be relieved
.
In addition, new production capacity is expected to be put into production, and the market will encounter resistance at that time, and MMA is not ruled out
.
