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Aluminum prices rose at a high level this week, with Lun Aluminum up 1% and Shanghai Aluminum up 3.
15%; The macro situation tends to stabilize during the week, the central bank's RRR cut drives market confidence, and the continuous delocalization of domestic inventories lays a solid foundation for the upward trend of aluminum prices, superimposed on the frequent interference of the supply side, short-term Shanghai aluminum or continue to high range shock, Lun aluminum focus on 2500-2580, Shanghai aluminum main focus on 1.
91-19,700 range
.
This week, the US dollar index fluctuated to the upside, and China's comprehensive RRR reduction at the beginning of the week exceeded market expectations, and the macro water release continued; However, due to the recent continuous improvement in the US employment situation, rising prices, the hawkish turn of the Federal Reserve and the risk aversion driven by the global epidemic heating up have supported the dollar, the dollar index has fluctuated to the upside, but the recent dovish comments of the Fed have limited the dollar's
gains to some extent.
Fundamentals, there was a power shortage in many places across the country this week, Yunnan implemented another 25% power cut, the existing production capacity has no impact, but nearly one million tons of suspended production capacity resumed production; Henan electrolytic aluminum plant will stagger peak production
.
At the same time, entering the off-season of consumption, the social inventory of aluminum ingots shows signs of accumulation, and it is expected to officially move towards accumulation in the second half of the year, while the downstream aluminum rod performance goes to storage
.
Overall, the supply and demand of aluminum market in the short-term market is still tight, forming a strong support
for the futures price.
It can continue to maintain the layout of bargain hunting, but it is not advisable to blindly chase the rise in the
short term.
