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Recently, the marginal weakening of the fundamentals of Tianjiao pressured the plate, and the current price has been close to the lower edge of the range, because the domestic mixed rubber inventory is still in the falling channel, supporting its spot price is relatively firm, and the short-term market is expected to fluctuate in a wide range
.
In the medium and long term, the positive factors at the supply level need to be further fermented, and the weather and domestic arrivals in southern Thailand should be paid attention to, and more expectations
should be maintained.
On the macro front, Omicron hit, global stock markets and crude oil and other commodities weakened sharply, for sensitive natural rubber bearish is very obvious, but the 5-day domestic RRR reduction is positive for market
liquidity.
On the supply side, China's Yunnan production area has been completely stopped, Southeast Asia is still in the peak season of output, due to frequent rainfall weather and lack of labor impact, production is affected, in the case of China's production reduction, the global market has entered the year-end supply tight period
.
In terms of imports and exports, China imported a total of 661,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in November 2021, down 7%
from 711,000 tons in the same period in 2020, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on December 7 。 In the downstream, the operating load of rubber tire factories fell slightly, as of December 3, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 62.
98% (-2.
98%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 62.
17% (-0.
08%); Domestic heavy-duty truck sales continue to show weakness: data show that in November, China's heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell 48,000 vehicles of various types (invoice caliber), down 10% month-on-month and 65%
year-on-year.
On the other hand, although the inventory has increased, many factors such as cost have led to many tire manufacturers intensively issuing price increase notices
.
In terms of inventory, general inventories continued to decline, while bonded zone inventories and futures warehouse receipt inventories increased in a trend, Thai mixed spot was tight, and prices were relatively strong
.
Qingdao's inventory in the current period was 318,000 tons, down 0.
69% (-02,200 tons) month-on-month, of which general trade stocks were 252,800 tons, down 0.
43% (-01,100 tons) month-on-month, and bonded zone stocks were 65,200 tons, down 1.
66% (-01,100 tons)
month-on-month.
Qingdao's inventory has slowed down to warehouse, and it may be difficult to see accumulation occur
years ago.
As for light-colored rubber, RU warehouse receipts increased to 175,500 tons (+21,000 tons)
as of December 10.
Overall, tight supply and delayed arrivals supported the trend of rubber
.
However, the downward risk of macro crude oil has led to a weak commodity market; In the downstream, China's winter environmental protection inspection has a certain impact on the operating rate of tire enterprises, the demand is weak, and the tire finished products are accumulated
.
It is expected that natural rubber will maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, and if the external system risk continues to increase, it will continue to drag down the trend
of tianjiao.
