Three winning rules for innovative drug investment! Attached with a panoramic view of Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises' innovation background

Innovative drug investment is full of challenges for every investor This is a multiple game of science, commercial and finance To understand the disease and technology, to predict the future market performance, and finally to work out the appropriate valuation of investors can profit Today, we mainly discuss two questions about the investment experience of innovative drugs: first, why we choose to invest in an innovative drug enterprise and which echelon this innovative drug enterprise is located in Second, is the price given by the enterprise reasonable? What criteria do we use to evaluate? 1 The total number of Chinese innovative drug enterprises in 2013-2016 has 123 enterprises that have applied for ind of 1.1 drugs It is estimated that the total number of innovative drug enterprises is 2-3 times of the sample, i.e 250-370 (the data mainly comes from Ding Xiangyuan, CFDA, yaozhi.com, etc.) 2 clinical data of domestic innovative drugs 1 China's ind situation As of the end of March 2017, about 700 drugs from major pharmaceutical companies and research institutions at home and abroad (including abroad) are undergoing clinical trials all over the country 2 Detailed explanation of the application of ind indications in China Throughout the indications of large and small molecules in China, lung cancer and liver cancer are the hottest fields, while small molecules make exploration in various solid tumors and diabetes, while large molecules are also concentrated in the research and development of blood tumors, RA and SA Among the macromolecules that have been in the Red Sea are the monoclonal antibodies for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis At present, the domestic drugs that have been made up are yisaipu, qiangke and Haizheng ambenol, which are the biological analogues of enri The human receptor antibody fusion protein, the biological analogues of adalimumab, which are the fastest in China, are baiaotai and Xinda The indication of rigidity has entered the third phase of clinical practice The rheumatoid of Fuhong Hanlin The indication has entered the third stage Adalimumab belongs to all humanized antibody Data source in the figure above: drug delivery data source: drug delivery mechanism analysis, small molecules as traditional drugs, the main way of administration is oral, can enter the cell and act on the intracellular target, it is difficult to act on protein interaction However, macromolecular drugs, generally acting on the target of cell surface, inhibit protein interaction, have strong specificity, generally can not be taken orally, and it is difficult to enter the cell Therefore, the two forms of drugs are complementary to each other, and it is difficult to completely nibble away from each other's treatment field From the perspective of market share, small molecule accounts for 70% of the total The growth rate of macromolecular drugs is significant, which will occupy a large imagination space in the future Gotega has foresight in the field of macromolecular drugs, which reflects the courage of professional investment institutions and has made a layout Of course, cell therapy, gene therapy, nucleic acid drugs, etc are also emerging In the future, there will be a pattern of coexistence of multiple treatment schemes In addition, it needs to be added that for pipeline design, if it is a red sea with fierce competition, the author's suggestion is to run fast and stably Under the condition of ensuring the success rate, if it is not enough to simply do analogues or small molecules to change the structure, it is suggested to run in the top three positions, and for the first in before clinical practice Class project can provide large and small animal experimental data, in vitro data, compound patents, published literature of the same or similar targets and pathways, Co nference post, and another data that cannot be ignored is toxicology data, sometimes directly related to the success rate of phase I 3 Number of ind pipelines in the product R & D stage of small molecular enterprises in the late clinical stage of China Hengrui retagliptin phase 3 19 Zhengda Tianqing anlotinib Phase 3 9 Jiangsu Haosen flumatinib phase 3 8 and Huangpu fruquintinib phase 3 6 green leaf pharmaceutical ly-03006 phase 3 6 Zhejiang Haizheng hs-25 phase 36 pioneer pharmaceutical sm-071201 phase 26 pinocembrin phase 25 Baiji Shenzhou Bgb-3111 phase 2 3 Shanghai Pharmaceutical sophocarpine phase 2 3 AXA pharmaceutical at101 phase 2 3 Shenzhen micro core cs-038 phase 3 3 (listed xidaban) hms552 phase 2 1 allitinib phase 2 4 develop pharmaceutical industry gt0918 phase 2 1 Suoyuan biological db102 phase 3 1or3 (special business model) product development stage of macromolecular enterprise Number of ind lines: Haizheng pharmaceutical hs016 phase 36 (among which ambeno has been listed) Jiangsu Hengrui Pegfilgrastim biosimilar phase 3 5 adalimumab biosimilar phase 3 5 Tianguangshi VEGF biosimilar phase 32 adalimumab biosimilar Phase 3 4 Ypeg somatopin phase 3 4 Anhui unnamed CD19 targeted car-t cells phase 2 3 Beijing Northland nl-201 phase 3 Zhangjiang biology Alemtuzumab biosimilar phase 3 3 2 Data source: network data + interviews with some enterprises The above table selects some enterprises that have entered the stage of clinical phase II or above, some of the data are from the network, and there may be some omissions In recent years, the field of innovative drugs has been warmly sought after by the capital It has become a discipline to value innovative drug companies The author can only put forward some immature personal opinions here In order to explain the ideas clearly, a case is listed Case analysis: for a new drug enterprise, there are 2 products in the pipeline entering the clinical phase II (main product 1: TP), and several pre clinical products (in order to protect the privacy of enterprises, some information has been changed) 1 Comparable valuation method The author selected the private financing cases in the field of small molecule innovative drugs in 2015-2016 as comparable transactions The innovative drug companies in the following list are all founded by the founders of returnees background, and their products are in the early stage of clinical development, and the treatment field of innovative drug company A The R & D strength, clinical stage or product pipeline number are comparable Financing enterprise (number of lines) pipeline financing time domain valuation Hualing Pharmaceutical (2) 1 in clinical phase II, 1 in clinical phase I diabetes mellitus RMB 3.5 billion in 2016 (4) Clinical phase I × 4, a number of 2015 tumors before clinical launch: US $1.048 billion, US $720 million, AXA Pharmaceutical (5) 4 pre clinical, 1 clinical phase II tumor 2016 RMB 2.5 billion Geli Biology (4)