The USDA report on Friday predicted that the soybean segment would not be satisfactory

Introduction: key points: - the final output of soybean in 2001-02 is expected to be basically the same as that of last month - the demand has been very large and there is a certain space for growth - the quarterly inventory report may show that the demand in the first quarter has reached the highest record in the same period in history - the world output forecast will not change The USDA should slightly revise the supply and demand of us soybeans in this month's report Most analysts believe that there will be no big change in the soybean part of the report The USDA last month forecast soybean production for 2001-02 at 2.923 billion bushels, a record In a survey of 18 analysts, final soybean production is forecast to average 2.924 billion bushels, almost in line with last month's report But Brian Anderson, an analyst at the Anderson commodity consultancy in Kansas, disagreed, saying that the western belt's abandonment rate this year was higher than industry expectations He estimated soybean production at 2.9 billion bushels, based on a 140000 acre reduction in harvesting area and a 39.2 bushel per acre yield (USDA's yield forecast is 39.4 bushels, the highest since 1994-95) He said that in the report of January in history, the increase of per mu yield is different, and the yield of crops per mu is likely to decrease Most analysts believe that in any case, ending inventory should remain unchanged at 330 million bushels, unless the USDA's demand balance is revised Most people predict that the ending inventory changes from 310 million bushels to 350 million bushels Anderson said the USDA is unlikely to raise its US crush numbers this month because it has already raised its crush forecast in its December report At present, soybean crushing is set at 1.67 billion bushels, the highest level in history According to him, the squeezing from September to November was about 2% higher than the same period last year, with a total volume of 428 million bushels He said the first quarter figures would provide a compelling example of the USDA squeeze correction Bill Nelson, an analyst at A.G Edwards in Missouri, also believes there will be no change this month as the USDA has sharply adjusted its squeeze and export forecasts last month He said he would not be surprised if the Ministry of agriculture raised its 1 billion bushel export forecast by 5-10 million bushels this year Anderson said U.S soybean sales were up 17% and shipments 13% this year compared with last year, while the U.S Department of agriculture's export data was almost the same as last year As a result, the U.S Department of agriculture may revise its export forecast upward by 10 to 15 million bushels [quarterly inventory will show that the inventory is close to or record consumption] the average value of analysts' forecast shows that the quarterly inventory on December 1 was 2333 million bushels, compared with 2240 million bushels in the same period last year, and the average value from 1996 to 2000 was 2087 million bushels Such a stock situation indicates that the consumption in the first quarter is close to the highest level in history In 1997, the quarterly consumption record was 822 million bushels Anderson predicted that on December 1, the inventory would reach a historical record of 2.315 billion bushels According to him, the total soybean consumption from September to November should actually reach a record of 835 million bushels, compared with 810 million last year and 790 million bushels in five years Under normal circumstances, our consumption from September to November accounts for about 29% - 31% of the whole year, which means that the annual market consumption is 2.695 billion to 2.880 billion bushels, compared with the figure of 2.845 billion of the U.S Department of agriculture The squeezing speed is higher than last year, and the quarterly export evaluation has exceeded 20 million bushels last year Nelson took a different view, arguing that the actual amount used in the first quarter of this year needs to be verified [world output forecast unchanged] most analysts seem to agree that there will be no change in USDA's forecast of world supply and demand balance For example, the Ministry of agriculture has raised its production forecast in Argentina last month, but currently Argentina is facing some adverse weather factors Therefore, in this report, the Ministry of agriculture may not amend Argentina's soybean production Similarly, Brazil The drought in the south of Brazil has increased the market's attention The fact that the weather in January is very important to the final production may make the USDA dare not increase Brazil's production estimate Currently, the USDA's production estimate for Brazil is 41.5 million metric tons Private sector forecasts have emerged that Brazil's soybean production is 43 million tons Anderson said Brazil's production could increase by 500000 to 1 million tons in this report If so, world soybean production could increase by 500000 tons to 183.2 million tons, compared with 174.3 billion tons last year At the end of the period, the world's inventory will also increase by 250000-500000 tons, reaching 29.5 million tons In 2000, the total world inventory was 28.6 million tons Analysts believe that this report will not amend China's production and demand.