The upward momentum of aluminum prices is weak, and the downstream intraday receipt is more general

On Wednesday, February 12, LME aluminum pulled back slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1732.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
37%
on a daily basis.
The main 2004 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and fell, with the highest 13,800 yuan / ton and the lowest 13,745 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 13,760 yuan / ton, up 0.
04% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 23955 lots, and the daily decrease was 22262 lots; The position was 91035 lots, an increase of 2507 lots
per day.
The basis is -90 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai aluminum in 2003-2004 narrowed to -15 yuan / ton
.

Market focus: (1) Academician Zhong Nanshan said that the peak of the new coronavirus epidemic is expected to appear in mid-to-late February and may end
before April.
(2) UK GDP in the fourth quarter was flat y/y from the third quarter, in line with expectations, and the rebound in December was more optimistic
than expected after a surprisingly negative monthly growth in November.
(3) Alba Aluminum's aluminum production in 2019 increased by 35% year-on-year to 1365005 tons
.

Spot analysis: On February 12, spot A00 aluminum reported 13630-13670 yuan / ton, the average price was 13650 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market spot is more sufficient, and the shippers are very active in noon, but the middleman receives the goods slightly less hot, and the transaction between the two sides is acceptable, but because the intraday shipments are significantly more than the previous day, the spot discount has expanded
.
Downstream intraday receipt is relatively general, and there is no obvious sign of
procurement.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 136462 tons on Wednesday, a daily increase of 16,686 tons, an increase of 10 consecutive days; On February 11, LME aluminum stocks were 1,239,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2004 contract were 65014 lots, a daily increase of 2052 lots, short positions were 71853 lots, a daily increase of 1359 lots, a net short position of 6839 lots, a daily decrease of 693 lots, long and short increased, and the net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On February 12, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened high and fell
in 2004.
China's pneumonia epidemic is generally on a downward trend, Academician Zhong Nanshan said that the epidemic is expected to end in April, and market worries have improved; Britain's GDP in the fourth quarter was stronger than expected, the possibility of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank decreased, and the US dollar index came under pressure, which supported aluminum prices; However, affected by the epidemic, the resumption of work of downstream aluminum enterprises has been greatly affected, which will affect downstream demand; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory shows an upward trend, coupled with the expectation of future production capacity, the inventory pressure is large, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is weak
.
In terms of spot, the intraday market spot is more sufficient, and the shippers are very active in shipping before the afternoon, but the middleman receives the goods slightly less hot, and the transaction between the two sides is acceptable, but because the intraday shipments are significantly more than the previous day, the spot discount has expanded
.
Downstream intraday receipt is relatively general, and there is no obvious sign of
procurement.
Technically, the main 2004 contract daily MACD green column contraction of Shanghai aluminum, mainstream bulls increased their positions, and short-term high volatility is expected
.