The trend of soybean general oscillation will not change

Introduction: Recently, the price of imported soybeans in the international soybean market and domestic ports has been rising continuously, which gives people a feeling that the soybean cattle trend is coming According to the analysis of relevant people of China jinliang.com, this kind of soybean price trend has changed from a decline in the early stage to a recovery in the near future It is a seasonal change in the background of economic cycle, and the trend of overall oscillation of soybeans will not change 1 Severe global inventory pressure According to the report of the Foreign Agricultural Service Bureau of the U.S Department of agriculture, the final inventory of U.S in 2000 / 01 was only 650 tons, which was the lowest since 1997 / 98 Although the final inventory of U.S soybean, as a major soybean producing country, declined, the global inventory remained huge It is expected that the global soybean inventory will be about 28.4 million tons, which makes the price of 2001 / 02 market in accordance with the However, it is restricted and the upward price is blocked 2 The international soybean market inventory pattern has changed and the market competition has intensified According to the United States Agricultural Administration (FAS), due to the overall decrease of the inventory in the United States at the end of the market year, and the increase of production in South America in recent years, the soybean inventory held in South America is twice that of the United States in the market year from October to September, so the soybean inventory began to shift towards the South America side This change of inventory led to more fierce competition in the traditional export market of the United States At the same time, South America will reduce the price in order to reduce the huge inventory pressure, and the international price market will also be affected 3 The domestic import volume will remain high, and the price rise is hard to say Recently, the prospect of Chinese soybean importers purchasing soybeans from the world market is still bleak, because the world soybean price is not attractive, and the market is still guessing that China's quality inspection authorities will implement new strict measures for soybean inspection Traders are not enthusiastic about the purchase of foreign soybeans, but domestic soybeans can not meet the domestic demand at all due to the strong increase in demand of soybeans in China The domestic policy has always focused on replacing the imported soybean meal with the imported soybean raw materials, keeping the processing capacity at home, so as to protect the interests of domestic oil mills However, due to the transportation difficulties and the long distance from the market area, the Northeast soybean has no advantage over the imported soybean, so a large number of imports is an inevitable trend According to the export sales report released by the United States Department of agriculture, as of August 30 In a week, China bought 180000 tons of soybeans from the United States alone A large number of imported soybeans have an impact on the domestic market, and the regulatory role of the domestic market on the price trend of soybeans has gradually weakened On the contrary, the impact of the international market on the trend has been increasing 4 Transgenic soybeans are gradually accepted by the market, and the favorable factors are gradually fading 5 The impact of the US attack on the international food market is only short-term positive The attack of terrorist organizations in the United States caused panic in some countries in the United States and in the world, and the international index of soybeans rose Although the United States may launch a war against terrorist organizations, the war may be local in the region and short in the time, so it will not have a dramatic stimulating effect on the growth of soybean demand and consumption, and the price will also rise It's short-lived 6 China's accession to the WTO has become a foregone conclusion, and soybean price pressure is increasing On September 17, the negotiation of China's accession to the WTO finally came to a successful end China's accession to the WTO has been determined Accession to the WTO means that the import tariff of soybean products will be reduced steadily, and the import tariff within the soybean quota will be 3% After accession to the WTO, although there is little space for the reduction of the import tariff within the soybean quota, the import quota will be greatly increased, and the additional import tariff will be greatly reduced Therefore, China's accession to the WTO will The domestic soybean market will have a very negative impact (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: