The trend of domestic wheat in the second quarter will be mainly stable and rising

Introduction: Recently, the domestic wheat market has become more and more active Stimulated by the continuous decline of production, the wheat price has increased by a certain extent Many market participants believe that the price of wheat market in the later period is full of power and the market trend is optimistic Based on the analysis of various factors, the overall trend of the domestic wheat market in the second quarter will be mainly stable and rising 4xN from the domestic wheat market in the first quarter of this year, stable and rising has become the main theme of the market price trend For the market trend in the later stage, the industry insiders pointed out that the market in the later stage will be influenced by many factors, including both supporting factors and price restraining factors In general, the domestic wheat market will continue to take a stable trend as the main line in the later period, and the possibility of a sharp fall in prices will not be too great 4xN 1 The situation that wheat supply exceeds demand has not changed According to the survey of relevant departments, in 2002, the total supply of domestic wheat (including the predicted import of 1 million tons) was 91 million tons; the total demand of wheat (including the predicted export of 1 million tons) was 117.14 million tons; about 26 million tons of stored wheat will be consumed this year, and the wheat inventory will continue to decline at the end of this year However, due to the large stock at the beginning of the period, the total supply of wheat in the whole year is still relatively abundant 4xn2 In the second quarter, the main production area will significantly increase the efforts of warehouse turnover There is still a certain pressure on the market due to a large number of national aged grain stocks There are 39.5 million tons of aged grain in China, only a few of which have been processed Such a huge amount of aged grain will still cause great psychological pressure on people The price of wheat in the international market has risen sharply, which has driven the price of domestic high-quality wheat up At present, the import CIF price of hard wheat in the United States is about 600 yuan higher than that of domestic high-quality special wheat per ton In addition to processing with imported materials and some high-grade flour processing enterprises continue to rely on imported wheat, many flour processing enterprises begin to seek the replacement of domestic high-quality wheat, so the price of domestic wheat will rise slightly The sown area of wheat was further reduced Due to the adjustment of planting structure and the comparison of planting economic benefits, the sown area of wheat decreased for the fourth consecutive year in 2002 Among them, Shandong Province planted about 40 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 11 million mu, up to 22% In recent years, as the country has increased the pace of adjusting the planting structure, many grain producing areas continue to "shrink grain and expand economy", resulting in a policy reduction of wheat planting area; at the same time, because the wheat price does not continue to rise too much, which greatly affects the enthusiasm of farmers for planting, and also urges farmers to take the initiative to reduce wheat planting area According to the survey of relevant departments, in 2003, China's winter wheat output is expected to be 80.59 million tons, down 2.96% over the previous year; the average per hectare yield is expected to be 3950 kg per hectare, up 2.25% over the previous year; the planting area will be reduced to 20.4 million hectares, down 5.12% over the previous year In 2003, the sown area of spring wheat is expected to be 1.9 million hectares, and the output is expected to be 5.8 million tons, down 6.89% over the previous year At the same time, in recent years, diseases and insect pests in some main wheat producing areas are more serious, and the drought in a few places is still continuing, which to a certain extent affects the wheat production in China this year Since last autumn and winter, the temperature of wheat area in Henan Province is low and the light is uneven for most of the time, which results in the weak seedling situation and the reduction of disease resistance Recently, it has been raining continuously in Jiangsu Province, and the growth of wheat is in danger This year, the growth of Winter Wheat in Shandong Province is not only affected by drought, but also affected by diseases and insect pests It is expected that this year's wheat production reduction in Shandong Province has become a foregone conclusion In addition, recently, wheat stripe rust broke out in Western Hubei Province, with an area of nearly 800000 mu At the same time, due to the impact of climate, the overall growth of wheat in Hubei is weaker than last year In addition, Guizhou, Anhui and other provinces also have a large area of pests The expected decline of wheat production will promote the rising of wheat price in the future 4xN 3 Farmers in the main production area are reluctant to sell wheat, which makes the purchase progress slow Some farmers in Shandong Province also pay agricultural taxes in the form of cash The storage enterprises have a better expectation for the future price of wheat, which has increased the purchase of new wheat, and the purchase price of wheat has gradually increased 4xN 4 The rotation pressure of national storage wheat is high Last year, the rotation of national reserve wheat has been basically completed, and the rotation work is in progress In order to implement the instructions of the State Council and the State Planning Commission on the new storage and loading of new grains, it is expected that the progress of the national storage wheat rotation work will be accelerated, which is bound to play a supporting role in the price of new wheat The export of wheat continued to grow China's export of feed wheat has changed recently, and wheat for flour production has attracted attention in the international market This is because wheat prices in the international market are running at a high level, which makes Southeast Asian Importers gradually turn their attention to some non-traditional wheat exporting countries Although there is a certain gap between China's wheat quality and the United States and Canada, China's wheat quality is favored in the international market because of its low price, short transportation distance and certain competitiveness With the increase of flour wheat export, the price of high-quality wheat in China will rise to a certain extent 4xN analysis of many factors, supporting factors will be slightly better in the near future In particular, the domestic wheat production has been reduced for four consecutive years, the wheat production situation is still not optimistic this year, and the sustained growth of wheat export will be the key factors to support the periodic rise of wheat market Therefore, it is expected that the wheat market will tend to rise in the future Because the huge stock of wheat in China has not been improved and the pressure on the market is still heavy, it is unlikely that wheat prices will rise sharply 4XN