The trend of domestic corn price in the later period is full of variables

Introduction: the domestic corn market has successfully bottomed out in October 1999 and rebounded all the way since it stepped into a long bear road in 1995 However, by the end of July this year, a new round of downward trend caused by policy reasons has not been significantly improved With the coming of new grain, the corn market, which has been enjoying a good reputation for more than a year, has been exhausted Whether it can regain its momentum in the later stage has attracted the attention of many people in the industry Here we have made some superficial discussions on this subject In terms of domestic corn supply and demand, although corn production declined significantly last year, it is expected that the recovery growth of output this year is generally recognized by most market participants, while the decline of inventory and the increase of corn consumption are basically the same as the global market According to the forecast, the opening stock of domestic corn in the year of 00 / 01 is 102.3 million tons, and the ending stock is 83.46 million tons; in the year of 01 / 02, the opening stock is 83.46 million tons, and the ending stock of the year is expected to be reduced to 71.96 million tons In recent years, feed corn in China has shown a rapid growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of 3.9% While the domestic corn inventory is expected to decline, the export volume is also expected to decrease this year, which further illustrates the expansion of domestic corn demand and the potential for corn prices to rise However, we should be aware that the market is expected to be weak in the short term due to the imminent listing of new corn Due to the earlier harvest time of corn in Huang Huai Region of North China, the regions that can form a large number of commercial corn supply since the end of September mainly include Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and parts of Northern Jiangsu and Anhui provinces Broadly speaking, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces should also be the regions in which commodity corn supply can be formed The annual corn production in the above areas has reached 45 million tons, which is close to the total corn production level in Northeast China This year, the total output of corn in the above regions is expected to reach about 47 million tons, while the output of corn in the four northeastern provinces (including Inner Mongolia) is expected to be only about 33.7 million tons, and the output of the two major corn producing regions will differ by 13.3 million tons The commodity rate of corn is relatively low in Huanghuai area of North China, and the average level is only about 30% The commodity rate of Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Shandong is relatively high Even so, it is expected that the quantity of commodity corn in this region will reach 14 million tons this year, so the supply and demand of corn in North China, Huanghuai and the quantity of export will largely affect the price trend of corn market in China before the end of this year The inventory level of corn in Huanghuai region of North China is relatively low, and the pressure of down price sales is relatively small Moreover, this year, the region will basically open the corn purchase market, which may lead to a slight increase in the market commodity rate and a slight increase in the number of foreign shipments Even if the increase in the number of foreign shipments may mean the need to increase the number of purchases from the Northeast in the future, the influence of the region on the domestic corn market will slightly increase after the new corn is launched this year We believe that after the listing of corn in North China, Huang Huai Region, it will soon occupy a large share in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions and South China market, and promote the decline of corn prices in these regions To sum up, the recent trend of corn may be weak, but for its later trend, we think the favorable factors include: 1 Although the expected output is expected to resume growth, it is still only equivalent to the average level of previous years; 2 Once the domestic inventory falls to the safe value range, it will support the price of corn; 3 Except for the consumption of the breeding industry, the use of corn is not The corn demand will increase with the development The disadvantageous factors include: 1 The current price ratio of corn to wheat and early indica rice is disadvantageous to the upward trend of corn; 2 Compared with the current small amount of corn export, although there may be a replenishment process in the later stage, the expected annual export volume will still be lower than the previous year's level; 3 With the approaching of China's accession to the WTO, the low price of international corn will certainly bring impact on domestic corn, but due to the import matching The amount is increasing year by year, so the degree of influence is different In a word, due to the introduction of new corn, the short-term market is weak On the existing basis, the production area may fall to about 1000 yuan / ton, but the decline time will not be too long It is estimated that after May next year, it may enter a new round of restorative rise Although the production area will break through 1100 yuan / ton and the sales area will break through 1350 yuan / ton, it is not entirely impossible Of course, with the change of the international market and the government's regulation and control policies (export subsidies, reserve scale and sale of stale grain, etc.) after China's accession to the WTO, it will be the most important factor that will really influence the corn market in the future.