The traditional peak season is coming, and Shanghai rubber as a whole shows oscillation and rise

In 2020, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and dry weather, the cutting time of many production areas was delayed, and the output of new rubber began to gradually increase since June, but due to the shortage of glue workers and the impact of sporadic rainfall in the production area, there is still a certain gap
between the output of new rubber and the past few years.
In July, the monthly output of ANRPC Tianjiao was 1.
013 million tons, down 143,000 tons from the same period in 2019; from January to July, the cumulative output of ANRPC Tianjiao was 5.
8781 million tons, down 544,300 tons from the same period in 2019, a decrease of 8.
48%.

After the start of a new round of rubber tapping operations in domestic production areas, the output of new rubber has gradually increased, and the current monthly output has basically returned to the normal level of previous years, but due to the delay of nearly two months in the cutting time compared with previous years, the cumulative output during the year has decreased
significantly.
In July, the monthly output of domestic tianjiao was 97,000 tons, a slight decrease of 03,100 tons from the same period in 2019; from January to July, the cumulative output of domestic tianjiao was 231,300 tons, down 75,600 tons from the same period in 2019, a decrease of 24.
63%.

In August
, the overall operation of domestic tire enterprises remained high.
On the one hand, the tire foreign trade export market continued to improve, and the concentrated shipment of the backlog of orders in the early stage formed a strong support for the start of enterprises; On the other hand, external factors such as high temperature power rationing and typhoons, which are common in summer in previous years, have little impact, and the continuity of enterprise operation is strong
.
The average weekly operating rate of domestic all-steel tires in August was 74.
12%, up 11.
54 percentage points from the same period in 2019; the average weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 69.
96%, up 9.
11 percentage points
from the same period in 2019.

This year's domestic cutting time is generally delayed by nearly two months compared with previous years, so the number of rubber that can be registered as a futures standard warehouse receipt this year is limited, and the inventory of the last period of the rubber warehouse receipt is maintained at about
220,000 tons.
On August 25, the inventory of Tianjiao warehouse receipts fell by 12,200 tons, the largest one-day decline in the year, and continued to be at the lowest level
in the same period of nearly four years.
According to the regulations of the exchange, the old rubber warehouse receipt will be written off in November, according to estimates, if the new warehouse receipt is not replenished in the later period, the domestic warehouse receipt inventory will drop to less than 100,000 tons after the cancellation of the old rubber warehouse receipt in November, when the low inventory will form a stronger boost
to the rubber price.
As of August 31, the domestic warehouse receipt inventory was 214,180 tons, a decrease of 207,000 tons
from the same period in 2019.

In summary, due to the upcoming traditional rubber production season and the upcoming overseas alternative planting indicators, the short-term rubber price is facing certain pullback pressure
.
However, from the perspective of the whole year, the domestic output of new rubber is likely to decline due to the shortening of the tapping time, while the demand is increasing with the economic recovery, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of tianjiao will be significantly improved
.
After the centralized cancellation of the old rubber warehouse receipt in November, if the new warehouse receipt is not replenished in time, the inventory of the rubber warehouse receipt will drop sharply to a low level of more than 7 years, and the rubber price is expected to be more strongly supported
.
Therefore, in the medium and long term, the price of sky rubber will maintain an upward trend
.