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Recently geopolitical crisis has triggered a strong risk aversion in the commodity market, copper prices show a weak shock trend, but the current copper is in the traditional peak season, downstream demand recovery on upstream copper demand has driven, copper downstream demand mainly includes real estate and power grid, as the traditional peak season approaches, north and south construction sites and power grid investment projects on the horse, the consumer side will gradually pick up, copper prices below will be strongly supported
.
In terms of real estate, although the person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that the real estate bubble will be curbed by accelerating the real estate tax legislation, the cooling expectation of the property market is strong, causing the market to worry about the weakening of copper demand, but the recent spokesperson of the two sessions Fu Ying said that the real estate tax will continue to be postponed, and the real estate market will maintain a weak and stable probability of being large, in addition, with the recent start of construction sites in the north and south, downstream demand for copper will gradually pick up
.
On February 22, according to the State Grid Corporation of China released the 2016 social responsibility report, it promised that in 2017, the total investment in the power grid was 587.
1 billion yuan, the investment in fixed assets was 484.
8 billion yuan, and the investment in the power grid was 465.
7 billion yuan, although the data was slightly lower than the investment in fixed assets of the power grid of 521 billion yuan and the investment in the power grid of 497.
7 billion yuan in 2016, but remained stable
overall.
In terms of home appliances, real estate destocking in third- and fourth-tier cities will continue in 2017, and the production and sales of home appliances may maintain moderate growth, which will be positive for copper prices
.
In automobiles, because the amount of copper used in automobiles is not large, the demand for copper from automobile production and sales is not large
.
In summary, downstream terminal demand remained stable in 2017, coupled with the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, which formed a great support
for copper prices.
In summary, in the short term, the geopolitical crisis escalated, risk aversion was strong and bearish the commodity market, and the domestic housing market and currency tightening on commodity prices or further dragged down, but the current overall macroeconomic stability, foreign mine processing fees continue to decline, copper mine supply tightening or will become the main driving force for copper prices to rise, at the same time, the "gold three silver four" traditional peak season is still expected, copper prices are expected to further rise
in the later period.
