The trading stalemate between the two sides of the market The main force of Shanghai aluminum has encountered obstacles to the upward trend

Market focus: (1) Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 51.
5 in December, down slightly by 0.
3 percentage points
.
(2) On January 15, 2020, Trump will sign the phase one agreement
with high-level Chinese representatives at the White House.
Later he will travel to Beijing to begin negotiations
on the second phase of the agreement.
(3) The People's Bank of China will cut the RRR by 50 basis points on January 6, releasing more than 800 billion
yuan of long-term funds.

Spot analysis: On January 2, spot A00 aluminum reported 14560-14600 yuan / ton, the average price was 14580 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 40 yuan / ton
.
After returning on New Year's Day, affected by macro news, aluminum prices rose at the open, but the market obviously showed that there were not many circulating sources, there were not many brands that could be circulated, although the middlemen had the willingness to receive goods but could not be satisfied, the holders did not ship much, and there were not many brands in their hands, and the two sides traded deadlocked
.
Downstream did not show an active receiving state after New Year's Day, mainly because the sharp rise in aluminum prices inhibited demand, and most downstream manufacturers have entered the state of holiday before the Spring Festival, and the willingness to purchase and prepare is gradually weakening
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 39,550 tons on Thursday, an increase of 1,123 tons per day; On December 31, LME aluminum stocks were 1475025 tons, a daily decrease of 2,700 tons, a decline of 7 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract were 69851 lots, minus 3142 lots per day, short positions were 88071 lots, daily minus 1820 lots, net short positions were 18220 lots, daily increase of 1322 lots, long and short were reduced, and net short increased
.

Market research and judgment: On January 2, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2002 encountered obstacles to the upward trend
.
China's December Caixin manufacturing PMI data performance was not as expected, ending five consecutive months of recovery, and downstream demand weakened, electrolytic aluminum spot inventory in recent days has a small burden, and downstream aluminum rod inventory has rebounded, the pressure on aluminum prices has increased, but the Sino-US trade negotiations are further optimistic, while the People's Bank of China lowered the RRR, releasing sufficient liquidity to the market, and upstream alumina production declined, alumina prices stabilized, and the pressure on the raw material end weakened, forming some support
for aluminum prices 。 In terms of spot, the market obviously shows that there are not many circulating sources, there are not many brands that can be circulated, although the middlemen have the willingness to receive goods but cannot meet them, the holders do not ship much, the two sides are deadlocked, and the downstream does not show an active receiving state
after New Year's Day.
Technically, the main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum is long and the upper shadow, and the daily MACD indicator is dead-crossed, and the short-term volatility is expected to be weak
.