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On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1804 continued to fall under pressure, closing down to 52890 yuan / ton at the end of the day, and trading at 53360-52670 yuan / ton during the day, indicating that the upper selling pressure is still heavy, and the short-term downside risk remains
.
In terms of term structure, the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1803 contract and the 1804 contract remained at 180 yuan/ton
.
In terms of external trading, Asian London copper around 7100 US dollars / ton around narrow fluctuations, performance continued to resist the decline in Shanghai copper, of which 3 months London copper trading at 7161-7072 US dollars / ton, now trading at 7109 US dollars / ton, up 0.
37% per day, the current London copper back to the moving average interweaving operation, has not fully effectively broken through the
oscillation range.
In terms of positions, on February 5, the position of London copper was 326,000 lots, an increase of 708 lots per day, indicating that when the copper price oscillation was consolidated, the divergence between long and short increased
.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index fell slightly under pressure and is now trading around 89.
5, up 1.
19% from the low of 88.
416 in this round of correction, but it is still below 90 for the eleventh consecutive day
.
The market is currently focused on the Bank of England interest rate meeting, hoping to provide more guidance
on whether the rate hike expectation can be achieved in May.
Industry information, according to data from the US Department of Commerce, in 2017, the United States exported 55,618 tons of copper cathode, imported 809074 tons, and the annual net import was 753456 tons
.
In terms of the market, on February 7, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot pair of the month contract reported flat water-liter water 60 yuan / ton, flat water copper trading price of 52680-52820 yuan / ton
。 Although the price difference in the next month is still more than 300 yuan / ton, the price of the holder is therefore raised to good copper premium 70 yuan / ton, flat water copper premium 20-30 yuan / ton, but traders have almost no profit margins, no speculation into the market to buy, the market by the premium pattern of the supply of goods, the willingness of the holder to cash is strong, but under the premise of few responders, can only lower the premium quotation, good copper to about 40 yuan / ton, still difficult to digest, flat water copper straight down to near flat water, even a small post of 10 yuan / ton, In order to attract some downstream customers who continue to replenish at low prices, wet copper discount 90-80 yuan / ton is a relatively stable and concentrated variety
.
The volume of downstream purchases is declining, and the intraday market has begun to show the characteristics of
oversupply.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1804 contract continued to fall to 52890 yuan / ton under pressure, still stuck in the recent oscillation range, short-term trend repeatedly, highlighting the caution of long and short trading, while copper price performance resisted the decline of other base metals, indicating that its intrinsic downward momentum is not strong
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1804 contract can sell high and low in the range of 52800-53300 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 500 yuan / ton
each.
