The supply and demand can keep the basic balance, and the number of pigs will be reduced in the next spring

Introduction: the current survey shows that the current pig production in the province after a sharp decline in the early stage, the decline in the low level on schedule slowed down Compared with the same period of last year and the previous period, the purchase and sale price of pigs has fallen, but the decline is not large After the new grain was put on the market, the price of grain and feed has declined, but the price of most varieties is still higher than that of the same period of last year, and the price ratio of pig to grain is basically reasonable It is expected that in the first quarter of next year, especially before the Spring Festival, the supply of marketable pigs will be less than that of the same period of last year, but the supply and demand will remain basically balanced compared with the consumption demand with a large decline, and the price of pigs is expected to remain basically stable After the Spring Festival, the price of pigs may fall back slightly after the off-season of consumption 1 According to the base point survey, the total number of live pigs in the province is 13.4299 million, down 11.60% compared with the same period last year, and 1.38% compared with the last period (the end of August) Among them, 1.0977 million male and female pigs were on hand, down 4.56% over the same period of last year, down 5.63% over the same period of last year; 3.0719 million piglets were on hand, down 11.87% over the same period of last year, down 7.49% over the previous period; 8.6303 million fattening pigs were on hand, down 12.31% over the same period of last year, up 2.10% over the previous period The proportion of male and female pigs in total stock is 8.17% According to the analysis, the reasons for the large drop in the current pig stock compared with the same period last year are as follows: first, the impact of the early epidemic, the heavy losses of pig farmers in the severely affected areas, on the one hand, the shadow of fear has not been eliminated, and at the same time, there is a lack of funds to supplement the stock Second, this year's policy changes have a huge impact on pig production Now the masses have no concept of task in pig breeding, and there is no concept of task in pig breeding, and there is no concept of task in pig breeding The grass-roots government will no longer include pig production in the cadre assessment indicators Third, due to the poor benefit and high risk of pig farming, farmers choose to go out to work much more than in previous years, and the blank rate continues to rise Fourth, the current survey is at the end of October, while last year was at the end of November The time difference is one month, and the data is somewhat incomparable 2 Factors affecting pig production in the first quarter of next year 1 Favorable factors (1) the proportion of sows in the total stock is normal, the stock level is still high, and the potential of pig production is sufficient (2) although the feed price is still higher than that of the same period of last year, it has continued to decline since the end of August The price of corn has dropped from 1.32 yuan per kilogram at the end of August to 1.12 yuan at the beginning of November The comprehensive average price of corn, barley, bran and soybean cake decreased by 6% The price of feed goes down, which is beneficial to reduce the cost of pig production and improve the feeding efficiency (3) there is little room for the price of pigs to fall before the Spring Festival According to the analysis of the stock structure of fattening pigs, the total supply of marketable pigs in the first quarter of next year will be less than that in the same period of last year There is little room for the centralized consumption of new year's day and the Spring Festival and the meat processing industry to reduce the price of pigs before the Spring Festival At present, the price ratio of pig and grain is basically reasonable, and farmers still have some benefits in pig raising, which is more beneficial to stabilize farmers' pig raising mood and mobilize farmers' enthusiasm in pig raising 2 Disadvantageous factors (1) the adjustment of rural industrial structure, the compression of grain and the expansion of economic crop production have led to the emergence of many "grain free villages" Although the per unit yield of autumn grain in the whole province increased this year, the total yield decreased by 3 billion yuan due to the decrease of planting area, which is rare in recent years (2) farmers' feeding investment has changed, and they have developed into herbivores such as cattle, sheep, rabbits and aquatic products such as fish and shrimp with pig breeding Because there is no tax to pay for raising cattle, sheep and rabbits, the benefits are relatively stable (3) the number of migrant workers in rural areas increased compared with the previous years 3 Trend forecast: it is expected that the production of pigs in the whole province will develop steadily at a low level in the first quarter of next year The supply of marketable pigs is less than that of the same period of last year, but the supply of pigs before the Spring Festival is still abundant If there is no disastrous weather, there is less possibility that the pig price will rise sharply After the Spring Festival, the pig market price will be stable and tend to fall It is expected that 5 million 600 thousand pigs will be sold in the first quarter, down 6.67% from 6 million in the same period last year, 1 million 200 thousand will be purchased by state-owned food enterprises, up 4% on the same period last year, 900 thousand will be sold, and 300 thousand will be transferred, basically the same as the same period last year (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: