The Spring Festival holiday is over, and the copper market is steadily resuming work

As of February 13, the copper inventory in the previous period was 137,300 tons, an increase of 64,665 tons compared with before the holiday (January 23), an increase of 89.
03%.

Of course, this is only the explicit inventory of the previous period, and the inventory of brand merchants who do not participate in delivery is also high, which puts obvious pressure on copper prices in the future market
.

It is worth noting that the current sulfuric acid inventory of electrolysis enterprises is high, and some enterprises have expanded their warehouses, which is also the main factor
limiting the future electrolytic copper production plan.
Manufacturers reported that in addition to the transportation problems, the lack of downstream operation is also the main factor
that makes it difficult to sell sulfuric acid.

A trader in Shanghai said that the downstream has not yet started, and the transaction mostly comes from traders to see the transaction, but the high delivery inventory has led to a significant increase in merchants' cautiousness, and concerns about future market demand have also been ignited, and merchants expect that the upward pressure on copper prices in the future will still be large
.

For copper enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangdong, where copper enterprises are widely distributed, there are few enterprises that have resumed work, which is mainly caused
by the relatively strict policies in these regions and the large problems facing resumption of work.
According to the survey, in addition to its own production capacity, output, production and environmental protection and other issues, personnel mobility is also an important indicator
for the resumption of work.
As a result, many enterprises, especially those in Guangdong, are limited by the large proportion of migrant workers, and the difficulty of resuming work has increased
slightly.

At present, it is most difficult for recycled copper production enterprises to resume work, in addition to declaring and preparing protective materials, it also needs the acceptance of environmental protection testing, which is the most difficult link
in the entire industry.
Domestic scrap copper traders, including upstream recycling and dismantling plants, are still in a state of shutdown, and important scrap distribution centers such as Shandong Linyi Scrap Metal City and Henan Changge Dazhou Scrap Metal City are basically all closed down
.
In addition, there is another important reason, the current scrap copper price is low, compared with the Spring Festival before the cumulative decline of 1000-1500 yuan / ton, stockpilers generally said that the loss is too serious, before the scrap copper price has not recovered to a pricing level, will continue to remain wait-and-see, no willingness to
ship.

On the whole, the resumption rate of the copper industry in February is not high, and only the operating rate of the electrolytic copper industry that maintains production is acceptable, but if the downstream resumption rate continues to be low, the production of electrolytic copper in March will also be impacted
.
Due to the low actual consumption, it is expected that inventories in the previous period will continue to rise, and a return to the high level of early 2019 is still possible
.
In terms of copper prices, the first-line support of 45,000 yuan / ton in the spot market is still relatively strong, but in the macro environment of long and short intertwined, the upward resistance of copper prices is still large, and it is recommended that merchants operate inventory carefully
.