The sixth batch of national centralized procurement of insulin special procurement quotation forecast

On November 26, the sixth batch of national procurement bids for special insulin procurement, a total of 81 products and 10 companies, including 3 multinational pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, and domestic insulin leader Tonghua East Bao, Gan & Lee pharmaceutical, and Zhuhai United Laboratories, Yu Heng pharmaceutical, Wanbang biochemical and so on East sunshine
.
Maintain moderate competition According to the procurement rules of the "National Organization of Insulin Concentrated Procurement Plan" (draft for comments), the overall logic of the national procurement is to maintain moderate competition, unlike chemical drugs that require fierce competition
.
It can be seen from the procurement rules that there are three factors that ease the pressure of competition: First, quality is the priority and the clinic is respected
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The medical institution independently chooses the generic name (each brand) based on the reported volume.
Normally, preference will affect the price elasticity of the product.
The greater the preference, the less the product price elasticity, and the smaller the preference, the greater the product price elasticity
.
When medical institutions can enjoy the surplus of the medical insurance fund after cost savings, they will choose "good quality and cheap" medicines, that is, they will choose the same quality and the lowest price
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At present, China is in the pilot stage of DRG and DIP payment reform
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According to incomplete statistics, more than 200 cities have implemented DRG and DIP payment reforms.
Medical institutions in the pilot cities will make a more rational choice in this purchase.
Other regions that have not conducted the pilot may still have certain brand preferences.
, To reduce the price drop of these brands
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The second is group competition
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When the number of competing products decreases, the price drop will decrease
.
After grouping, the number of competing products in each group is greatly reduced, which will slow down competition
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The third is to appropriately increase the selection rate
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The winning rules mentioned that "in principle, the method of winning by difference, multiple winning", "appropriately increasing the winning rate, and promoting more companies with more suitable quotations", these rules release a signal that groups with fewer competing products may be selected.
All selected
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Since it is highly likely to be selected, the bidding company does not need to significantly reduce the price
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Quantity allocation promotes healthy competition.
Of course, there are also some factors that promote competition: First, "in principle, use the method of selection by difference", that is, groups with a large number of competing products are likely to implement the final elimination system, and companies that want to win the bid You must show enough sincerity to lower the price significantly to win the bid
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Second, in the selected classification rules, the allocated amount is in favor of the enterprise with the lowest quotation
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The basic quantity rule is that “half of the companies with the lower quotation are classified as A, the first-placed company is 100% with the quantity, and the other A-selected companies are charged at 80% of the reported quantity”, which means that the lowest price companies are 20% higher than other companies.
% forecast amount; different products in the same group as the last two, as a class C enterprises, can only report the amount of 50% with a volume ratio of class A first low amount forecast by 50%
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The incremental allocation rule is "30% of the reported volume of the selected companies in category C will be allocated as an increment to any selected company in category A.
For the reported volume of unselected companies, 80% of the reported volume will be allocated to any category A by the medical institution.
And Type B companies, and the amount allocated to Type A companies exceeds that of Type B companies
.
” It can be seen that for the companies entering the elimination group (the number of competing products in the table exceeds 3 varieties), the actual volume of the A company with the lowest quotation will exceed the previous reported volume by 100%, and the A company will also exceed the B company
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There are differences in the number of competing products in each group, resulting in slightly different levels of competition
.
On the whole, under the same bidding rules, there are relatively more competing products for second-generation insulins (groups 1 to 3), and the price reduction will be even greater
.
Three kinds of quotation strategies In the sixth batch of national procurement, the specific quotation strategies of bidding companies are as follows: 1.
The highest effective declared price bid
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In the third-generation insulin (groups 4 to 6), only one company bid for insulin glulisine injection, insulin degulipin injection, and insulin detemir injection, and these companies can win the bid as long as they meet the highest effective declaration price
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2.
Weigh various factors for bidding
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The number of competing products of insulin lispro injection/recombinant insulin lispro injection and protamine zinc recombinant insulin lispro injection (25R/50R) is 1+1, that is, a multinational pharmaceutical company and a domestic pharmaceutical company
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If the winning bid requires n-1, one must be eliminated.
At this time, the cost and the willingness of the company to occupy the market must be compared
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The domestic pharmaceutical companies for these two products are Ganli Pharmaceuticals, and the multinational pharmaceutical companies are Eli Lilly
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In this bid, other products reported by Ganli Pharmaceutical are Protamine and Human Insulin Mixed Injection (30R), Insulin Glargine Injection/Recombinant Insulin Glargine Injection, Insulin Aspart Injection, Insulin Aspart (30/50) ) Injection, the number of competing products of these products is more than 3, the competition is fierce, and the bid price will be lower
.
Regardless of other factors (such as market size, etc.
), Ganli Pharmaceutical wants to win the bid, and the rational price drop of other products should be lower than these two products
.
Of course, if the production capacity is limited and the order of bidding is considered, a “tacit conspiracy” may also be formed, that is, if a company wins the bid for insulin lispro injection, it cannot bid for protamine zinc recombinant insulin lispro injection (25R/ 50R), the second company can bid at the highest effective declared price.
If the information is almost public information, then both companies will bid at the highest effective declared price, and each won the bid for a product
.
Otherwise, the competition will be more intense
.
3.
Lower bid price strategy
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Each group of second-generation insulin and the third-generation insulin insulin aspart injection, insulin glargine injection/recombinant insulin glargine injection, and insulin aspart (30/50) injection have more than 3 competing products (including 3) , The most likely implementation of the last elimination system
.
If these companies want to win the bid, they will inevitably engage in price competition, and the rational quotation strategy is to bid at a lower price
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Enterprise quotations need to weigh cost and scale.
The larger the scale, the greater the decline, and the lower the cost, the greater the decline
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To sum up, this centralized procurement adopts a moderately competitive bidding rule.
Compared with chemical drugs, the competition is more moderate, but in the group with a large number of competing products, the price drop is also larger.

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Of course, it is not ruled out that individual companies take the market at low prices.
After all, there is a two-year purchase period, which is long enough to drive competitors out of the market, and the price drop may be even greater
.