The situation of blocked high aniline will improve

The peak season is coming

The peak season is coming

Since August, the domestic aniline market has experienced four months of high volatility before picking up its upward trend
.

As of the end of August, the domestic mainstream transaction price was between 10,900 and 11,200 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 2.

“The signs of weakness in the regional market at the beginning of September were mainly due to the decline in the purchase of high-priced raw materials by some downstream companies in the north due to environmental protection factors, while the southern companies had little effect, indicating that it was only a short-term behavior and did not represent a trend in the broader market
.

The traditional peak season is approaching, and at the same time, the raw material pure benzene has stabilized and strengthened again, and the production enterprises still have maintenance plans and other basic support.

The market is strong in the south and weak in the north

　The market is strong in the south and weak in the norththe　market is strong in the south and weak in the north

According to statistics from Henan Chemical Network, on September 3, the spot quotations of aniline from northern enterprises such as Shandong Jinmao, Dongying Huatai, and Shandong Jinling were lowered from 10,900 yuan in late August to 10,700 yuan
.

Southern companies such as Nanhua Company and Jiangsu Yangnong are still quoting 11,000 to 11,200 yuan, and the domestic aniline market is showing a pattern of strong in the south and weak in the north

Li Bing said that the lower prices of northern companies were mainly due to the recent environmental protection factors in North China.
Some downstream companies have reduced the load and demand has declined.
Aniline companies have adopted small profit margin operations.
In addition, Tianji's driving load has increased to more than 80%, and the supply of goods has also begun.
Growth
.

The shipment of aniline in East China is relatively smooth, and manufacturers' inventories are mostly at low levels, and low-end quotations have risen instead

　　Stronger cost support

Strong cost support

　　According to Li Peixin, Purchasing Director of Jiangsu Dipu Technology Co.
, Ltd.
, the domestic price of pure benzene has fallen from its high level of around 8,500 yuan in July to 7,600 yuan in late August
.

While the industry is cautiously watching, at the end of August, port inventories continued to decline and domestic production was not replenished in large quantities.

　　According to a sales representative of Nanhua Company, as of the end of August, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aniline plants was around 52%.
Although the comprehensive operating rate increased to 55% in early September, Nanhua Company was 100,000 tons/ton on September 10th.
The annual equipment is scheduled to be overhauled with a period of 15 to 20 days, which is expected to reduce social supply again
.

Therefore, from the perspective of supply capacity, the "Golden Nine" market for aniline still has good expectations

　　Macro benefits still exist

　Macro positives still exist　Macro positives still exist

　　Meng Jianjie, marketing manager of Zhengzhou Dayou Gas Co.
, Ltd.
, said that in addition to the continuous rise in the market prices of raw coal and natural gas, the products that extend the chemical product chain to the middle and lower reaches have also begun to increase significantly
.

For example, in the first week of September, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose sharply to 19,600 to 20,500 yuan, a weekly increase of about 7%

　　From the perspective of the international macro environment, the Fed’s dovish statement triggered the weakening of the U.
S.
dollar, the Atlantic hurricane led to the large-scale shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.
S.
Gulf of Mexico, and U.
S.
crude oil and refined oil inventories fell unexpectedly
.

Under the influence of these factors, it is expected that the current international crude oil of about US$70/barrel will remain high in the short-term, and the sequelae of the dollar's water release have not yet been manifested.

　　"For the current high price of aniline, traders and downstream companies are more cautious
.
At present, the theoretical profit level of aniline products has reached about 1,800 yuan per ton, and there is still a lot of room for subsequent increase in the load of aniline
.
Therefore, there must be high risks under high profits.
It is recommended that the industry focus on stability, and high-risk operations such as hoarding goods at high positions and waiting to rise are not recommended
.
" Li Peixin said
.