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The recent organic silicon (DMC) market is rising like the temperature
.
In the third week of June, the average price rose by 2,300 yuan (ton price, the same below), ranking first in the business community chemical bulk commodity list with an increase of 8.
At present, the domestic market is still at a high level, the shortage of supply has not yet eased, the downstream demand has grown significantly, the confidence in the industry has risen, and many manufacturers have stopped selling
.
It is expected that DMC prices will continue to rise in the short term .
The boom in supply and demand stopped falling and rebounded
The boom in supply and demand stopped falling and rebounded.Both boom in supply and demand stopped falling and rebounded.
In June, supported by the cost support of the high-level operation of raw metal silicon and the favorable support of stable downstream demand, the DMC market swept away from the previous decline and began to unilaterally rise
.
"At the beginning of May, the domestic DMC market fell rapidly, with a half-month decline of 3.
74%.
Although there was a slight recovery in the second half of the month, the monthly decline still reached 3.
38%
.
" Liaoning silicone distributor Wang Xia introduced, after the "May 1st" Labor Day, DMC The market fell sharply, and there was a lot of bad news
In late May, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the industry's operating rate has dropped, the spot available on the market is tight, the market has closed, and the overall trading atmosphere has gradually warmed
.
"Starting from May 17, some factories have raised their ex-factory prices, and they have returned to the highest level of the month in just 4 days
Entering June, the DMC market has entered an upward channel with the support of various parties
.
A relevant person from China Post Securities said that under the support of strong supply and demand, silicone prices continued to rise, domestic companies’ inventories were low, overseas companies’ operating rates were still low, and the supply of foreign brands continued to be tight, further exacerbating domestic silicone supply and demand tensions.
On June 4, the ex-factory price of leading DMC companies in Shandong increased to 26,800 yuan, 800 yuan from the end of May, and some other DMC factories also slightly increased 200 to 300 yuan
.
According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average reference price of DMC on June 8 was 27,100 yuan, an increase of 433 yuan from the beginning of June, an increase of 1.
It is hard to find a product when it is closed.
After the market entered the upward channel, emergencies aggravated the tight supply situation, reappearing the hot market in the silicone market, many factories suspended orders, and the market could be described as "a single product is hard to find
.
"
It is reported that on June 9th, there was an emergency in a factory in Xinjiang region, and the short-term supply of DMC was tight, and the mentality of the manufacturers was affected to a certain extent
.
There was a strong wait-and-see mood in the venue, and several major manufacturers also closed their orders, suspended orders, and limited orders.
Regarding the recent market trends, Debon Securities analyst Li Ji believes that Hesheng Silicon’s Xinjiang Shihezi plant, which has been shut down for maintenance, is expected to start gradually after mid-July, but the new production capacity in the third quarter is not optimistic, and the supply contraction is expected to increase.
In the short term, silicone The tight supply in the market is difficult to improve, and the high-level operation will be the main focus
.
Optimistic outlook for demand outbreak
The prospect of a demand outbreak is optimistic The prospect of a demand outbreak is optimistic In the long run, silicone has a wide range of application scenarios, with more than 7,000 types of terminal segmentation products
.
It is expected that in the next 5 years, the downstream market of organic silicon will usher in a major outbreak in many fields.
By 2025, the relevant market will rise from the current 50 billion yuan to 94.
5 billion yuan, and the prospects are very promising
.
China has become a major producer and consumer of organic silicon, and the advantages of domestic organic silicon products have become increasingly prominent
.
According to data from the National Silicon Industry Green Development Strategic Alliance, China has transformed from a net importer of organic silicon to a net exporter since 2014.
In 2020, the cumulative export of organic silicon was 243,000 tons, an increase of 8.
5% over the previous year; the import was 152,000 tons.
An increase of 2.
9% over the previous year
.
"Silicone materials play the role of'industrial MSG' in the national economy with their excellent performance, and are widely used in construction, electronics, textiles and clothing, energy, medical and health industries, etc.
" Jia believes that in the past ten years or so, the demand for organic silicon products in China has been relatively strong, and the demand has maintained rapid growth
.
Due to its excellent high temperature resistance, compression resistance, radiation resistance and electrical conductivity, in addition to traditional fields, it is widely used in emerging fields.
Emerging industries such as 5G, new energy vehicles, renewable energy, and chip semiconductors will drive the further development of organic silicon materials.
Development
.
According to statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China's apparent consumption of organic silicon in 2020 is 660,000 tons, an increase of 11% over the previous year
.
With the gradual advancement of China's economic transformation, the rapid increase in residents' income, and the steady implementation of the "Made in China 2025" and "One Belt One Road" national strategy, China's apparent consumption of organic silicon will continue to grow at a medium-to-high speed
.
Industry organizations predict that in the second half of the year, domestic production capacity of organic silicon will be increased by 400,000 tons per year, but the actual output increase is expected to be around 2022
.
Due to the vacuum period of new production capacity and the low inventory of the whole industry, the market price of organic silicon is expected to be high in the second half of the year.
The future market prospect is optimistic and the upward trend is expected to continue
.