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On September 30, the main monthly 2011 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 14185 yuan / ton on Wednesday, with the highest intraday 14320 yuan / ton, the lowest 14105 yuan / ton, the settlement 14200 yuan / ton, and the end of the day closed at 14145 yuan / ton, down 55 yuan
.
The trend of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated during the day, and the inventory after the holiday may accumulate, the pressure on the supply side is increasing, and there is pressure
above the aluminum price.
In the external market, the trend of intra-day aluminum was weak, and the LME three-month aluminum was reported at 1769.
5 US dollars / ton at 15:01 Beijing time, down 9 US dollars, or 0.
51%,
from the settlement price of the previous trading day.
In terms of the market, the spot trading price of Yangtze River was 14660-14700 yuan / ton during the day, down 60 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 14620-14680 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan; Hua reported 14770-14790 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan
.
A small number of holders dumped goods at low prices, received few goods, and only a small number of traders participated in the transaction, and the overall transaction was flat
.
Macro: The outbreak of the second epidemic in Europe has caused concerns, a number of US economic data will be released in the eleventh quarter, and market uncertainty has risen before the US election, so market sentiment is biased towards caution
.
On the supply side: aluminum enterprises have steadily released production capacity, Yunnan Hongtai has been powered on since early September, and the Weiqiao Yunnan project has also begun to be put into operation recently, production capacity has accelerated, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, and there is a loose trend
on the supply side.
Cost side: The cost of alumina rose to 12827 yuan on the previous day, and the profit margin narrowed
.
Stocks: LME stocks fell by 6,100 tons to 1,466,900 tons, stocks in the previous period fell by 18,974 tons to 230,000 tons, and the social library fell by 35,000 tons to 662,000 tons according to the data on September 28, and the low inventory strongly supported the rebound
of aluminum prices.
From the perspective of the future market, the supply side has accelerated with the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, and the production capacity of the supply side has been further released, while the downstream start has remained stable, and the demand side has not been guided by the consumption season, and the consumption performance has not met expectations
.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will be mainly range-bound
.
Operationally, it is recommended to speculate on the partial exit of long orders, hold short orders cautiously, set protective stop losses, and wait and see for new orders, and avoid risks before the holiday
.
