The Shanghai rubber night market stabilized and maintained weak volatility

The opening price of the Nichijiao 1701 contract is 157.
4 yen/kg, the highest price is 158.
2 yen/kg, the lowest price is 154.
1 yen/kg, and the closing price is 155.
3 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3334 lots, and the position volume was 12934 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
Shanghai area 14 years state-owned full latex 10350 (-200); 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shandong 10350 (-150); The tax-free price of state-owned whole milk in Hengshui area for 14 years is 10,000 (0) yuan / ton, and the price of 15-year private whole milk without tax is 10,100 yuan / ton (0) yuan / ton; Yunnan 16 years private full latex quotation of 10700 (-100) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 1780 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the last period was reported at 314430 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 60 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong increased by 1970 tons, Tianjin decreased by 30 tons, and Hainan decreased by 100 tons
.

The main contract of Shanghai rubber 1701 fell in shock and fell and stabilized slightly in overnight trading
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line returns below the moving average system, the technical indicator MACD green column is enlarged, and the moving average system weakens; On the daily chart, the K line fell back to near the 60-day moving average, supported by the moving average system, and the MACD red column turned green
.
Lower support at 12520
.
The volume was slightly enlarged and the position volume narrowed
slightly.
Overall, the technical picture is weak
.

Holdings of the main contract of Shanghai rubber (1701): the top 20 members have long positions of 63321 (-1650), short positions of 89706 (+1399), and net short positions of 26385
.

Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai rubber shock fell, night trading stabilized
.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain the previous view, you can refer to the RMB composite rubber quotation -300~400 or so forecast
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the lack of new rubber storage brought support to the 01 contract, and the 09-01 spread closed at 2220
at night.
09 is likely to continue weakening
in mid-to-late August.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate
between 12500-13200 on the 01 contract.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai rubber may maintain a near, weak and far strong contract structure, and the spread is expected to repair to around
2000.
You can consider selling short on the 1611 contract, the logic is that part of the warehouse receipt of 09 will be moved to the 11 contract, as the last contract of the 16-year-old rubber, the 9-11 spread is expected to be flat, and even 11 may discount 09
.
However, 11 liquidity is limited, investors should pay attention to liquidity risk
.