The Shanghai copper shock rebound partially cut losses this week

Externally: Asian Lun copper fluctuated in a narrow range around 5500 US dollars / ton, of which 3-month London copper slightly fell 0.
32% to 5505 US dollars / ton, and the intraday trading range was 5543-5452 US dollars / ton, while down 8.
63%
from the high of 6025 US dollars / ton.
In terms of positions, on November 14, the position of London copper was 378,000 lots, an increase of 110 hands per day, which was a 10-day increase, and the increase in copper positions in the past three weeks showed that the copper price rise had funds to advance, and bulls were enthusiastic about
longing.

On the macro front: The Asian dollar index edged higher to around 100.
15, the highest since late November, as better-than-expected U.
S.
retail sales data for October and speeches from Fed officials further reinforced the possibility of
a Fed rate hike in December 。 In terms of industry, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's electrolytic copper production in October this year was 737,000 tons, up 7.
1% year-on-year, and also increased by 1.
66% month-on-month, and the monthly output hit a new high since December last year, while the cumulative output of electrolytic copper from January to October was 6.
96 million tons, an increase of 8.
4% year-on-year, the highest in the same period of the previous year, the data show that the high copper price and the high cost of TC/RCs of smelters have stimulated the continuous expansion of refined copper production and increased the supply pressure of the domestic copper market
。

In terms of market: on November 16, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 50 yuan / ton - 10 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 44030-44330 yuan / ton
.
With the sharp fluctuations in copper prices in recent days, holders are generally eager to exchange cash, in order to avoid price risks, the market supply is diversified, after the change of month, the copper premium has narrowed all the way, close to the noon there is a small discount quotation, speculators are unwilling to do high-risk speculation, the amount of market entry is limited, downstream just demand-based, still showing an oversupply pattern, market instability mentality began to dominate the transaction state
.

The Shanghai copper 1701 contract oscillated and rebounded to 44580 yuan / ton during the day, and the short-term copper price was confirmed by the retracement, the trend was biased, and the support below it focused on 42,000 yuan / ton
.
However, technically, at present, Shanghai copper is still effectively running above the moving average group, the upward trend is still good, and London copper increased its position to rise, indicating that funds are actively following
.
It is recommended to intervene again at the time of the correction, and the Shanghai copper 1701 contract can be backed by 42,000 yuan above the dip
.