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In the last week of December 2021, the natural rubber market continued to be stable after the rise: the natural rubber commodity index was 40.
77 on December 31, down 59.
23% from the highest point of the cycle of 100.
00 points (2011-09-01) and up 49.
45%
from the lowest point of 27.
28 points on April 02, 2020.
On the macro front, the decline in U.
S.
crude oil inventories last week is expected to boost oil prices, tight supply has formed a strong support for the oil market, and international crude oil has risen strongly recently, as of December 28, the main contract settlement price of U.
S.
WTI crude oil futures was $75.
98 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $78.
67 / barrel
.
International crude oil fundamentals after the market long and short game
.
In terms of industry, the recent peak season in foreign production areas and domestic production areas have basically stopped cutting, and the recent epidemic situation in Xishuangbanna area of Yunnan has had a certain impact on the market; The freight industry is sluggish, the export transportation cost of Thai Tianjiao is rising, the ship hold is tight, the shipping schedule is delayed, the arrival volume is slow to increase, the inbound volume is less than expected, and the general trade inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to decline, which supports the price well
.
On the demand side, passenger cars picked up month-on-month, and heavy-duty trucks did not improve
.
The operating rate of tire companies has rebounded marginally, ranking at a low level in the same period of many years
.
At present, the industry expects that the impact of La Niña may be limited, and the domestic and foreign supply side will enter a period of advantage; Downstream, the demand of the automotive industry is greatly affected by the "lack of cores" and the epidemic, especially the demand for domestic truck and bus tires may continue to fall, and the operating rate of tire companies is relatively weak; Although the total inventory of tianjiao in the country is at a high level, the inventory has been degraded, and the domestic bonded inventory is running at a low level throughout the year or it is the norm
.
In summary, the fundamentals of natural rubber lack obvious large drivers
.
It is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate for a long time in 2022, and there is no absolute upward momentum
for the market.
