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The recent weakness in copper prices has been mainly due to
the strength of the US dollar.
At present, concentrate supply is generally performing well, demand performance is average, and the epidemic is worrying the market
.
The LME and inventories increased yesterday and generally continued their downward trend
.
Copper prices may stabilize in the short term, weaken in the medium term, and remain supported by new energy demand in the long term
.
It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic epidemic, spot demand, copper downstream starts, inventory and other conditions
.
In terms of inventory, London copper stocks were at a one-and-a-half-month low, and Shanghai copper stocks increased by nearly 20%.
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), London copper stocks initially entered an upward channel from March, rising to a seven-month high of 180,925 tons more than two months later, and then the stock level continued to decline, and in the first half of last week, London copper stocks fell sharply, falling to a new one-and-a-half-month low of 116,900 tons on June 8, and then stocks recovered slightly, with the latest inventory level of 117,975 tons
.
Shanghai copper inventories continued to recover in the week of June 10, with weekly inventories rising 18.
7% to 51,453 tonnes, at a relatively low level in three and a half months
, according to the latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
International copper stocks rebounded sharply last week, increasing by 19.
11% to 94,370 tonnes
.
New York copper stocks increased overall last week, with the latest level at 80,549t
.
On the supply side, the disturbance of overseas mines has eased, domestic refined copper supply will grow, Shandong has added new refineries and previously stopped refineries to resume production, driven by high profits, refined copper supply is relatively abundant, superimposed logistics and transportation recovery arrival volume increased, domestic inventory accumulated
.
On the demand side, the improvement of the epidemic and the introduction of favorable policies, the recovery intensity of the consumer side is still weak, and the situation of infrastructure, real estate sales, automobiles, etc.
, has yet to be verified
by actual demand.
Comprehensive analysis, the US CPI in May was stronger than expected, boosting the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike expectations, the US dollar index rose sharply, the stock market atmosphere was miserable, and non-ferrous metals fell
collectively.
The increase in domestic logistics has led to the increase in copper inventory or continued accumulation, the support of low inventory on copper prices has weakened, superimposed on the overall downstream consumption is still weak, the real estate market is still in a downturn, which has a certain drag on copper prices, and short-term copper prices are weak.
