The recent trend of aluminum prices is strong, and it is expected that there will still be upward momentum in the short term

On the macro front, Taper's expectation of moving back has also added a fire
to the upward movement of aluminum prices.
At present, the haze of power rationing and dual control policies on energy consumption still shrouds the electrolytic aluminum market and has become the core driving force
for the rise in aluminum prices.
Although it is reported that power rationing has been loosened in Yunnan, it is difficult to resume large-scale production
in the short term.
Under the expectation of stricter policies, it is not ruled out that more production capacity will be affected, and the market is still pessimistic
about the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity.

On the cost side, the price of alumina has risen sharply recently, the cost of electricity has also risen due to the rise in coal prices, and the overall cost of electrolytic aluminum has increased, but the growth rate is still not as good as the aluminum price itself, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum continues to expand
.

On the demand side, since entering September, there has been no peak season
.
High aluminum prices and strict real estate policies have restricted the recent increase in new orders of construction profile companies, and the problem of lack of "core" in automobiles has dragged down the start of
aluminum alloys.
As downstream enterprises are pessimistic about peak season expectations, the risk of peak season is enhanced
.
Photovoltaics and new energy vehicles have become the two major sources
of terminal demand.

In summary, it is expected that aluminum prices will still have upward momentum in the short term, and the main theme of strong volatility will remain unchanged, but technically it has shown overbought, and be wary of pullback risks
.
Strategically, aluminum prices are expected to run around
22500-23800 during the week.