The purchase price of rapeseed should not be too high this year

Introduction: Recent Recently, there are more and more reports and analysis articles about the purchase price of rapeseed this year higher than that of previous years, summarizing various reasons: 1 The planting area of rapeseed in China this year may be lower than the earlier expectation, and the adverse weather conditions in the main producing areas of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin will also cause the decline of the production expectation; 2 The crushing capacity of rapeseed in China has been greatly improved, and domestic products have been made The output of rapeseed is far from meeting the pressing demand of oil and fat enterprises; 3 Due to the huge decrease in the output of domestic rapeseed last year, and the import of rapeseed products has been basically cut off, resulting in a large gap in the supply of rapeseed this year; 4 Driven by the rich profits of rapeseed pressing in previous years, oil factories all over the country have prepared sufficient purchase funds this year, and the rush to purchase rapeseed is on the rise Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the purchase price of rapeseed is bound to rise this year, and the purchase situation is relatively complex But here, the author must remind all the owners not to bid up the price and blindly purchase This year, the domestic oil and fat market situation is different from that of the previous years, so be careful of the risk of operation The specific analysis is as follows: fh7 1 The domestic oil supply is relatively sufficient this year On the one hand, last year, there was a shortage of imported soybeans before the start of rapeseed purchase, which made the domestic oil supply extremely tight This year, although there is a situation that a large number of imported soybeans from South America may be delayed for one month due to the blocked transportation in South America, there will still be a considerable number of imported soybeans coming to Hong Kong in the near future It is estimated that more than 1 million tons of American soybeans will be added in April, and a small amount of South America will also arrive In May, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in South America will begin to increase It is estimated that the number of landed soybeans will be at least 1 million tons At the end of March, China's import soybean carry over inventory will be large From the perspective of total effective supply and actual demand, April and may In March, the domestic rapeseed came into the market, that is, the oil soybean in China is still relatively sufficient Moreover, in June and the next few months, China's import of soybeans to Hong Kong will increase significantly, and the supply of imported soybeans will appear obvious excess Fh7, on the other hand, according to the analysis of officials from the State Grain and oil information center who attended the second session of China (Jingzhou) rapeseed production and marketing meeting, it is estimated that China's total output of rapeseed this year will be 12.27 million tons, with an increase of 20% over the same period This will change the situation that the number of domestic rapeseed decreased significantly last year According to the German newspaper oil world, the world's rapeseed production is better this year than last year, and the import volume of China's rapeseed products is expected to increase this year Therefore, compared with this year's domestic rapeseed supply is relatively sufficient Fh7 2 Imported soybeans from South America will arrive as scheduled According to fh7, the first ship of Brazil's new soybeans has arrived in China on Tuesday this week It is expected that in April, there will be 8-10 ships of Brazil's soybeans arriving at the port, with a total quantity of 450000-500000 tons In addition, the first batch of Brazilian soybean import licenses have also been issued, according to the information from the AQSIQ But traders are generally worried that China's General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine may try to limit imports of soybeans to 12 million tons in 2002 / 03, and the government will delay issuing import licenses in the future However, I don't think this can affect the arrival of a large number of South American soybeans This is because in recent years, China's soybean crushing capacity has grown rapidly, and the domestic soybean demand gap is huge Without the supplement of a large number of imported soybeans, the domestic soybean market price will rise abnormally, until it may cause the disorder of the domestic market Moreover, if the number of imported soybeans is small and the purchase cost of oil plants is always high, it will not only dampen the enthusiasm of enterprises, affect the development of national soybean processing industry, but also cause a large number of foreign exchange losses This is contrary to the goal of our government's macro-control by using the transgenic policy, so a large number of South American soybeans will arrive on time in the later period, which is inevitable to meet the domestic demand and supply, and the future market pressure is expected to gradually increase Fh7 3 The price of vegetable oil will not be too high (palm oil, imported soybeans, soybean oil shocks, consumption is not ideal) fh7 with the harvest of domestic rapeseed at the end of April and the beginning of May, a large number of domestic rapeseed will be listed, but its price is not optimistic The main reason is not only that this year's growth of rapeseed production will be fruitful, but also closely related to the import situation of domestic oil and oil materials: first, the total amount of imported soybeans is expected to reach 1700 this year Ten thousand tons, especially 10 million tons of cheap soybeans from South America; two, the total amount of soybean oil imported in China will reach 1.5 million tons this year, and the price will be more than 5500 yuan / ton; three, China has issued 2.6 million tons of palm oil import quota this year, because it has 1100 yuan with soybean oil and vegetable oil/ With the price difference advantage of tons, the profit is considerable, and the quota is expected to be exhausted The listing of a large number of imported palm oil will have a serious impact on the domestic oil market Fourth, may and June are the off-season of domestic consumption of edible oil, so the domestic oil market will also be depressed It can be predicted that in the coming months when vegetable oil is listed, the price of domestic oil market will step into a downward trend, and the price of vegetable oil will inevitably face a downward trend Fh7 4 Low demand for rapeseed meal Since the beginning of this year, the "bird flu" in the South and the "SARS" now spreading all over the country have made people particularly sensitive to livestock and poultry products , even a little intimidated, which makes the poor aquaculture and aquaculture industry greatly frustrated Especially in the later stage, due to the processing and production of a large number of imported soybeans, the domestic soybean meal supply will be quite sufficient, which will not only squeeze the market share of rapeseed meal, but also pull its market price down Fh7 in short, the domestic oil and fat market will decline in the later period, and the prices of rapeseed and rapeseed meal will also face a decline, so it is necessary for oil factories to correctly grasp the acquisition cost of rapeseed According to the market price calculation, the wholesale price of rapeseed oil per market Jin is 2.40 yuan, the oil yield is 35%, the meal yield is 0.45 yuan per market Jin, and the meal yield is 58% After deducting the processing fee of 15 yuan / 100 yuan, the guaranteed price of rapeseed purchase is about 0.88-1.00 yuan / Jin If the purchase price of the oil plant is too high, it may face the risk of operating loss or price reduction (Wang zhenrui) fh7 fh7