The purchase price of new rape seeds will be low and high this year

Introduction: with the approaching of May rapeseed harvest and the approaching of May rapeseed harvest, the industry has paid more attention to the market of rapeseed and predicted how the purchase price of rapeseed will change this year In my opinion, in view of the fact that the price of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, the downstream products of rapeseed, is likely to continue to decline, and the situation of high harvest of rapeseed at home and abroad this year, the purchase price of newly produced rapeseed is likely to be lower this year; however, in the case of the expansion of domestic rapeseed processing capacity and the stimulation of high processing profit in the previous year, the phenomenon of the processing factory purchasing rapeseed in a rush is likely to happen again Second, the purchase price of rapeseed increased rapidly The main factors that influence the trend of rapeseed production in this year are as follows: 1 Affected by the low temperature and rainy weather at the early stage of rapeseed growth and the strong cold air in early April, the predicted value of rapeseed production in China has been lowered three times in February April this year However, based on the increase of area and per unit yield, the total output of rapeseed is expected to reach the highest level in history this year Since the autumn and winter sowing in 2002, the growth of rapeseed in the south of China has been greatly affected, especially the low temperature in winter, the slow temperature rise in spring, the overall growth period delayed 10-20 days, and there was frost damage April 8 In the future, a strong cold air from West Siberia began to affect northern China Affected by this, strong winds, cooling and snowy weather began to appear in northwest, northeast, North China, Huanghuai and Jiangnan regions The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are in the stage of flowering, pollination and pod setting The normal growth of rapeseed is expected to be greatly affected, and the per unit yield level of rapeseed is likely to advance Step down As a result, the estimated output of this year's Rapeseed by the relevant state departments has withered for two consecutive times from February to March this year, from the original 12.93 million tons to the current 12 million tons Although the output of rapeseed is expected to decrease, it is expected to reach the highest level in history this year Compared with the output of 10.53 million tons published by the National Bureau of statistics last year, the output growth is still 13.96% The output of Jiangsu Province is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 23%; that of Anhui Province is 1.76 million tons, an increase of 15%; that of Hubei Province is 1.87 million tons, an increase of 16%; that of Hunan Province is 1.12 million tons, an increase of 19%; and that of Sichuan Province is 1.43 million tons, an increase of 2% This is mainly due to the sharp increase of rapeseed price after harvest in 2002, which makes the planting benefit of rapeseed increase correspondingly For this reason, the sown area of rapeseed in autumn and winter of 2002 has increased year on year The sown area of rapeseed will reach 7.9 million hectares, an increase of 400000 hectares, an increase of 5.19% While the total output of rapeseed is expected to increase substantially, the output of double low rapeseed will also increase It is estimated that the total output of double low rapeseed in China this year will be 5.66 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.41 million tons, an increase of 152% The planting area is expected to reach 3.51 million hectares, an increase of 1.88 million hectares, an increase of 115% Second, in this year's rapeseed harvest situation, the total supply of domestic rapeseed is not sufficient Under the situation that the prospect of rapeseed harvest is relatively clear at this stage, the domestic market is generally optimistic about the supply situation of this year's rapeseed, mainly because the year-on-year growth of 1.3-1.5 million tons of rapeseed output means that the output of rapeseed oil will increase nearly 560000 tons year-on-year, and the output of rapeseed meal will increase nearly 870000 tons year-on-year, so the supply is relatively abundant Although the production of rapeseed is expected to increase significantly this year, the import volume is expected to drop to 400000 tons, the lowest level since 1999; although the total supply of rapeseed in the whole year (calendar year) is expected to reach 1280 Ten thousand tons (including newly produced rapeseed, imported rapeseed and last year's inventory), although the total amount will increase substantially year-on-year, if no more imported rapeseed is involved, the output of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to rank fourth in the five years from 1999 to 2003; based on the above judgment, China's 2003 or 2003 / 04 (June 2003 to May 2004 Although the supply capacity of rapeseed will increase significantly, the supply is not expected to be in excess The price of tyh3 and rapeseed oil has started to fall recently, and it is expected that it will fall slightly further before the new production of rapeseed goes on the market On April 11, the price of secondary rapeseed oil in central Anhui was 5900 yuan / ton; that in southern Jiangsu was 5900 yuan / ton; that in Northern Zhejiang was 5950 yuan / ton; that in southern Hubei was 5950 yuan / ton; that in Northern Hunan was 5950 yuan / ton; that in central Jiangxi was 5900 yuan/ T; the price of secondary rapeseed oil in Central Sichuan is 5950 yuan / ton Compared with April 8, the price basically dropped 100 yuan / ton This is mainly because, with the establishment of the vertical management system of national grain and oil reserves, the annual rotation of national food and oil reserves has begun, especially the rotation of secondary rapeseed oil, which has started in April In addition to the rotation of local reserve oil, it will further depress the market oil price, and it is also a factor that can not be ignored The turnover of these large quantities of oil reserves has brought down the price of oil in various markets At present, the number of oil tankers in Central China, Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased significantly in recent years, and the number of secondary rapeseed oil tankers is the majority, which will put some pressure on the price of rapeseed oil, and also show that dealers are not optimistic about the price of rapeseed oil in the later period In addition, the new rapeseed market is approaching, and the oil factory will strengthen its willingness to ship in order to raise funds for the acquisition of new rapeseed Finally, the price reduction of palm oil and the arrival of cheap soybeans from South America will lead to the decrease of the whole domestic oil market; at present, the soybean salad in East China, Shandong and North China is reduced by 40-80 yuan / ton, which will bring pressure to vegetable oil However, the recent and future import of palm oil, soybean and soybean oil has a strong pressure on the domestic oil and fat market, which has a significant role in promoting the price decline of rapeseed oil Therefore, the market price of rapeseed oil will fall slightly, but there will not be much room for decline, which may be 40 yuan to 100 yuan / ton The price of rapeseed meal will fall in the near future, which will have a negative impact on the purchase price of rapeseed Due to the lack of sustained growth of domestic demand for rapeseed meal in recent years, thye has generated certain psychological pressure on dealers As the new season of rapeseed is approaching, dealers also feel the urgency of time Recently, some dealers have cut prices, resulting in a slight reduction in domestic rapeseed meal prices at the beginning of the week As the total inventory of rapeseed meal in China is not large, the sales pressure of dealers is not great The market pays close attention to the change of demand If the demand does not increase effectively in the near future, the sales pressure of rapeseed meal will further increase Thy 5 Affected by the long-term high market of rapeseed production last year and the impact of squeezing benefits on the purchasing psychology of the processing plant, the purchasing strength of the processing plant for the source of rapeseed will be increased In recent years, influenced by the international market, China's oil market has become increasingly competitive Many small and medium-sized oil processing plants have closed down However, large and extra large-scale oil processing plants have been built in coastal areas and other regions The increasing and surplus oil processing capacity makes the annual oil "acquisition war" become the key to the success of many oil processing enterprises! Every year, the battle of rapeseed purchase in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the rush purchase of Northeast soybean and northwest rapeseed, cottonseed, etc are witnessed by the insiders The rush to buy directly leads to the increase of oil prices and the increase of purchase and production costs The international rapeseed harvest in 2003 has become a foregone conclusion, which will not only benefit China's large-scale import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, but also restrain the price of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil According to the prediction of relevant Canadian agencies, the production of rapeseed in Canada will increase by more than 60% this year compared with the previous year Australia's relevant agencies also predict that this year's rapeseed production in Australia will jump to 2.03 million tons, more than three times higher than last year's production reduction, and other countries' forecast figures are also optimistic It can be seen that the international rapeseed harvest in 2003 has become a foregone conclusion, which will not only benefit China's large-scale import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, but also restrain the price of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil To sum up, as the output of rapeseed in China will increase significantly this year compared with the previous year, the price of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal will fall, and the profit of processing plant will be reduced Affected by this, the purchase price of rapeseed this year is expected to be the same or lower than that of last year However, as the squeezing capacity of oil processing enterprises is also correspondingly improved, the supply of rapeseed will still be tight after it goes on the market In this context, the price will rise rapidly in the short term due to the rush purchase of processing plants, and the highest price is expected to exceed 2300 yuan / ton The lower the open scale price is, the faster the price will rise THY