The prospect of world feed grain trade is optimistic

Introduction: the continuous growth of the world population, the improvement of the global economy and the gradual increase of people's income are the basic factors to promote the rapid development of the world feed grain industry in the first 10 years of the 21st century, and the prospect of the world feed grain trade is optimistic According to the prediction of the United States Food Commission on the world feed demand, the world feed food consumption was 874 million tons in 1999 / 2000, 892 million tons in 2000 / 2001, and 890 million tons in 2001 / 2002 By 2010 / 2011, it will grow to 999 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3% The volume of world feed grain trade was 95 million tons in 1998 / 1999, and it may be close to 110 million tons in 2010 / 2011 1 At present, the main importing countries of feed in the world are Japan, Mexico and South Korea In the next few years, their import demand for feed will increase to varying degrees Japan has been the world's largest importer of coarse grain for many years The import of coarse grain reached 19.7 million tons in 1997 / 1998, accounting for 20% of the world's import volume In 1998 / 1999, it was 20.5 million tons, in 2000 / 2001, it was 19.5 million tons, and it is expected to drop to 18.65 million tons by 2010 / 2011 Industrial products made from corn, such as ethanol and starch biodegradable plastics, have great development potential in Japan If that potential is realized, Japan's feed imports could be staggering Mexico is the country with the fastest growth rate of coarse grain demand in the world The import of coarse grain ranked the third in the world in 1995 / 1996, and now it has jumped to the second place The import of coarse grain is estimated to reach 10.7 million tons in 2002 (including 6 million tons of corn and 4.5 million tons of sorghum), which is expected to increase to 13.44 million tons in 2010 / 2011 Many years ago, Mexico's strong domestic food demand and the government's high price subsidies for corn once promoted the rapid development of corn production, resulting in the continuous reduction of imports However, a new subsidy plan introduced by the Mexican government in recent years allows the market to guide corn cultivation, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction in corn cultivation The implementation of NAFTA also prompted Mexico to gradually eliminate import taxes, which led to an increase in the amount of corn imported to the United States The rapid growth of Korean economy and the improvement of people's living standards promote the rapid growth of its demand for livestock and dairy products, so the demand for feed in Korea has increased significantly South Korea's corn imports in recent years are about 8 million tons, double the 1980s At present, South Korea is the fourth largest coarse grain importer in the world With the sustained economic development, the import volume of coarse grain in 2007 / 2008 may reach 10.9 million tons China is expected to become a net importer of coarse grain in a few years and one of the world's leading importers of coarse grain China's coarse grain imports are expected to grow to 11.3 million tons by 2010 / 2011, of which corn imports are about 7.4 million tons The demand for coarse grain in other Asian countries and regions will also grow steadily 2 The main export countries of feed grain in the international market currently include the United States, Europe, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union and South Africa In the next 10 years, due to the advanced agricultural technology, the area of coarse grain planting in the United States will be reduced, but the single output will be increased The world's largest exporter of coarse grain will still be the United States, which is expected to increase its demand for coarse grain by 24.7 million tons and export by 16 million tons in 2010 / 2011 The United States will continue to use large quantities of coarse grain to produce high-value meat, milk and eggs In 1997 / 98, 63% of the total corn production in the United States was used as feed grain, 20% for export, and 17% for the production of industrial products and food seeds In the next 10 years, this proportion will remain basically unchanged Since 1986 / 1987, the European Union has been a net export area of feed grain Its barley exports exceeded corn imports In 1991 / 1992, the EU's feed grain exports reached 7.1 million tons However, the reform of the common agricultural policy implemented in 1992 reduced the subsidy to domestic food, so the export of EU coarse grain in 1998 / 1999 fell to 3.24 million tons EU coarse grain exports were about 5 million tons in 2001 / 2002, but are expected to grow to nearly 8.2 million tons in 2010 / 2011 The economies of Eastern European countries have grown steadily since the late 1990s Eastern Europe imported 2.5 million tons of coarse grain in 1990 / 1991 and exported 3.2 million tons of coarse grain in 1991 / 1992 It is expected that the export will increase to 4.6 million tons in 2007 / 2008 and to more than 6 million tons in 2010 / 2011 As a result, Eastern Europe will be the only region to move from a net import area to a net export area in the next 10 years Countries such as Argentina, Australia, Canada and South Africa will further expand their feed exports in the next few years From 1992 / 1993 to 2002 / 2003, Argentina's corn export will increase by 51% By 2007 / 2008, Argentina's coarse grain export may increase to 10.4 million tons Canada's barley export will increase by 66%, and the average export of coarse grain in the next 10 years is expected to be 1.4-1.5 million tons By 2010 / 2011, Australia's coarse grain export is expected to increase to 4.4 million tons, and South Africa's coarse grain export will increase to 2.4 million tons from 1.4 million tons in 2001.