The prospect of egg price in winter and spring

Introduction: with the slow recovery of laying hens and the gradual cooling of the climate, the number of eggs in each region increased slightly Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the egg price gradually fell after surging In Shanghai, for example, the price of eggs in September was lower than that in August, but higher than that in the same period last year At the beginning of October, the purchase price of eggs from other provinces in Shanghai has dropped to 2.20 yuan, down 0.17 yuan or 7.2% compared with that before the festival Looking forward to the price trend of eggs this winter and next spring, it seems unlikely to rise sharply again, but it is also difficult to decline significantly According to some insiders in the production and marketing industry, it is expected that after the current price drops slightly, it will be in the trend of consolidation The egg price level in the whole quarter will be about 5% lower than that in the third quarter, but about 10% higher than that in the same period last year Current production and marketing situation and basic characteristics: first, although the stock of laying hens has been restored, the progress of the total supplementary stock is not fast In the first quarter of this year, the price of eggs fell to the lowest level in the past decade, and the professional chicken farmers suffered a serious loss From April, the price of eggs rebounded from a low point, and egg farmers began to get rid of losses and turn to low profits; after entering the third quarter, the price of eggs rose sharply, and the benefit of raising layers was very good As a result of many years of experience and lessons, most of the professional households take a more rational attitude towards the recovery of egg prices in various stages, and worry about being "punished" after "one boom" Therefore, although the stock of laying hens has increased, they are still cautious, the action of seedling introduction is not big, and the action of stock replenishment is not fast, which is conducive to the basic stability of egg prices, to prevent the oversupply of egg prices Degrees down Second, the feed price is relatively stable in the near future, but the trend is generally upward This year's summer grain production is reduced and dry rice is in failure Due to the adjustment of planting structure and severe drought, the planting area in the northeast corn production area and the Central Plains corn production area is greatly reduced, which will increase the expectation of corn price increase Feed is the main cost of eggs, for example, the price of corn and other feed is rising, and the price of eggs is difficult to fall sharply Third, the growth rate of egg sales in some cities slowed down In July and August this year, the retail price of chicken increased significantly, the sales volume of fresh eggs in the market decreased slightly, and the growth rate gradually dropped In the first quarter of this year, the social retail sales of eggs in Shanghai increased by 1.7% over the same period of last year, 2.0% in the second quarter, and 0.4% in July and August The growth rate of egg sales slowed down, or even basically did not increase, and the increase of egg price lacked strong support.