The prospect of coarse grain in the world is promising

Introduction: the world's crude grain production is expected to maintain at the same period last year, reaching 856 million tons However, production is expected to be well below long-term trend levels Reduced corn production in the United States and China has led to lower global production Lower barley production in the European Union and Canada is also a cause Without a substantial increase in production in Eastern Europe, the world's coarse grain production will be significantly reduced this year Since the world's crude grain output reached a record level of 908 million tons in 1996, the world's crude grain output has been showing a downward trend Based on the current forecast of the United States Department of agriculture, the consumption of coarse grain in 2001 is estimated to be 892 million tons, 2 percentage points higher than last year This is more than double the average annual growth in the past 10 years Consumption is expected to grow strongly in most parts of the world, but demand is likely to remain stable in North America and the EU Higher production in Eastern Europe is expected to lead to a significant increase in consumption in the region, but this will not have a significant impact on trade Global production will be 36 million bushels less than consumption, leading to a third consecutive market year of decline in carry over inventories The carryover inventory in 2001 / 02 is expected to be 158 million tons, close to the level of 1995 / 96, when corn prices were much higher than they are now The inventory to volume ratio was 18%, comparable to 1995 / 96, the lowest since the mid-1970s In addition, the carry over stock of foreign coarse grain is expected to be 119 million tons, the lowest level since 1985 / 86 We also calculated the supply gap of foreign coarse grain, which is the difference between the output and consumption of foreign countries This gap is the potential demand for us corn exports In 2001 / 02, the gap was 74 million tons, the highest level in more than 25 years However, this year's gap is mainly caused by China's poor corn harvest, so unless China suddenly becomes a major corn importer, the impact of this gap on world coarse grain trade will be limited Even so, a shortfall in foreign grain supply is good news for us corn exports, which should be able to regain market share lost to China in the past two years (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: