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Since April, general plastics except HDPE (2.
56%) all down, the market has fully entered the adjustment period, PVC (-8.
20%), PP (-4.
54%), LLDPE (-4.
48%) fell more obviously, occupying the top three, the rest of the products generally fell around 3%, the reason why the market is down, on the one hand, the price of upstream raw materials is falling, and the cost bearish is intensifying; More importantly, the social inventory is high, and the market destocking process is not ideal, which eventually leads to oversupply, while the downstream demand growth is slow, and the contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent
.
First of all, the decline in costs has driven downstream plastic products down, according to the monitoring of the main upstream products of the business agency: butadiene (-20.
14%), styrene (-2.
00%), calcium carbide (-1.
88%), naphtha (-1.
82%) and other upstream products are still generally downstream, so that downstream PS, ABS, PVC, PE and other products lose the support of cost, in the context of the contradiction between supply and demand, the downward cost is inevitable
.
In terms of supply, the output of primary form plastics in March 2017 was 7.
520 million tons, an increase of 4.
6% year-on-year, and the maintenance of manufacturers' devices in April was not large, and most of the devices were concentrated in May and June to enter the maintenance period, so it is estimated that the production of general plastics in April remained high
。 In addition, imports have also increased, in March China imported 2.
71 million tons of primary shape plastics, an increase of 11.
06% year-on-year, domestic production and imports have doubled high, resulting in high social inventory, from the inventory data can also confirm the situation of oversupply: such as LLDPE, as of April 19, East China, North China, South China, Huazhong petrochemical inventory is 65,000 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from April 12, at a high level; social stocks are roughly 500,000 tons, at a very high level, which has a strong suppression of plastic prices, PE, PP, PVC and other product markets need a new round of destocking process
.
Looking at the demand side, the output of plastic products in March 2017 was 6.
710 million tons, an increase of 3.
3% year-on-year, although downstream demand is also growing, but the increase is much lower than the output of plastic raw materials (11.
06%), as far as the current downstream operating rate, the data in April may continue to shrink, the operating rate of packaging film is 60%, and the operating rate of PVC profiles and pipes is generally lower than 50%.
On the one hand, polyolefin plant maintenance plan, most of the equipment maintenance period is concentrated in mid-May to early June, the market destocking process is expected to accelerate, the market does not prevent the possibility of speculation, but on the demand side, mulch film, agricultural film, wire drawing season ends, the market is in the off-season, more importantly, real estate related pipes, profiles are difficult to improve, market prices may be limited to recovery, it is expected that the market in May is difficult to see, the market may rise and fall are more difficult The amplitude of the product will continue to narrow, and PP and PE may rebound slightly, but the amplitude is not expected to be large, within
3%.
