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Commodity markets have been weighed
down recently as the probability of a Fed rate hike in March has risen sharply.
The main 1705 contract of Shanghai rubber is also in the overall bearish atmosphere, continuing the previous decline and further testing to near
the 17,000 yuan / ton mark.
However, some varieties represented by black yesterday walked out of a wave of rebound market, Shanghai rubber also finally closed the sun, and the daily K line became the bottom "T-line"
.
How the later trend will evolve, let's pay attention to the hints
given in terms of positions.
From the perspective of trading positions, the recent growth of Shanghai rubber positions has increased significantly
.
As of the close of trading on March 13, the total position of Shanghai rubber contracts was 390808 lots, an increase of 32,762 lots or 9.
15%
from the close on March 6.
The average trading volume in the last five trading days was 618412 lots, an increase of 8967 lots, or 1.
47%,
over the average value of the previous five trading days.
In terms of stock funds, as of the close of March 13, the scale of Shanghai rubber stock funds was about 8.
427 billion yuan, an increase of 326 million yuan, or 4.
03%,
from 8.
101 billion yuan closed on March 6.
Due to the recent decline in the price of Shanghai rubber, the increase in stock funds is not as good as the increase in positions, but it can be seen that the funds withdrawn from the previous decline have signs of returning again, and the energy of the next round of the market may have begun to gather
.
From the perspective of the main positions, as of the close of March 13, the total position of the top 20 long seats in the Shanghai rubber 1705 contract was 68649 lots, the total position of the top 20 short seats was 86202 lots, and the net position of the top 20 seats was -17553 lots
.
In the past week, the main long position increased by 3851 lots, the main short increased the position by 1011 lots, and the short position increased less than the long.
While net short holdings remain high overall, they have fallen
from a week ago.
The author notes that the main headroom of the Shanghai Rubber 1705 contract has climbed above the historical high of 17,000 lots since February 16 and has continued to be maintained
.
Correspondingly, the price of Shanghai rubber has continued to decline for nearly a month after that, which to a certain extent reflects the control of the bears' forces
in the recent market.
In the future, the increase or decrease of the main headroom may become an important indicator to judge the market, if the headroom volume declines further, or indicates the advent
of a round of rebound market.
In short, under the pressure of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations in March, Shanghai rubber continued to decline
following the overall commodity trend.
The current capital has certain signs of return, or has begun to accumulate energy for the next round of the market, and the increase or decrease of the main net short position may have an important impact on the future market direction, it is recommended to continue to pay attention
.
