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The main reason for the sharp rise in copper prices in the last two trading days last week was macro expectations
.
From the weakening of the US dollar index, the beautiful economic data in the United States and the new high school of US stocks, it can be seen that the Fed's easing policy and the performance of the consumer side have been recognized by the market, at least in the short term, the macro level is more optimistic
.
Goldman Sachs Group once raised its 12-month copper price target to $11,000 per tonne, and copper prices will exceed $
15,000 in 2025.
From a market perspective, Thursday's and Friday's rally could lead to a short-term retracement
next week.
On the macro front, global central banks are likely to continue to maintain their current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak
.
In the spot market, the supply of goods is relatively tight, and the holders have a certain situation of selling at a high price
.
However, due to the rapid rise in prices, the downstream is also afraid of heights and refusal to mine, so overall spot transactions are not very sourced
.
On the fundamental front, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees for the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may be divided on future copper concentrate supply, but it is still difficult to say that it is not generous
.
On the demand side, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to pull copper demand, and the next peak season destocking is likely to form a strong support for copper prices and maintain the long-term bullish judgment
of copper prices.
