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After the release of panic, the market was optimistic about a new round of stimulus in the United States, and on Friday, the external aluminum price stabilized and rebounded, and the London Stock Exchange three-month aluminum price was 0.
83% to $1762 / ton
.
Domestic night trading also rebounded, helping the 2011 contract close above 13,900 yuan / ton
.
From a macro perspective, the weekly line of U.
S.
stocks has been negative for four consecutive times, commodities are under pressure to the downside, and macro sentiment is bearish
.
On the supply side, aluminum enterprises have steadily released production capacity, Yunnan Hongtai has been powered on since early September, and recently Weiqiao Yunnan project has also begun to put into production, production capacity has accelerated, electrolytic aluminum operating rate continues to rise, and there is a loose trend
on the supply side.
On the cost side, the cost of alumina yesterday maintained a narrowing profit margin of 12,767 yuan
.
In terms of premium premium, the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot premium was raised sharply to 300 yuan / ton, and the discount range of Lun aluminum continued to narrow to 37.
5 US dollars, continuing to maintain a high level
.
In terms of inventory, LME stocks fell by 5,050 tons to 1,477,200 tons, the previous inventory fell by 18,974 tons to 230,000 tons, the social bank fell by 13,000 tons to 716,000 tons according to the data on September 21, and the social electrolytic aluminum inventory went to storage
for three consecutive periods.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices bottomed out, the profit margin of the electrolytic aluminum industry has narrowed, and the demand side has entered the September consumption season, but the demand has not met expectations, and the overall performance is relatively weak
.
The overseas epidemic has been repeated, and there is uncertainty
about the economic impact of the epidemic.
From the perspective of the future market, the supply side has accelerated with the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, and the production capacity of the supply side has been further released, while the downstream start has remained stable, and the demand side has not been guided by the consumption season, and the consumption performance has not met expectations
.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend has a greater probability of volatility
.
Operationally, it is recommended to speculate on the partial exit of long orders, hold short orders cautiously, set protective stop losses, and wait and see for new orders, and avoid risks before the holiday
.
