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Shanghai rubber has got rid of the oscillation pattern since the beginning of August, and the futures price center has been rising
.
The fundamentals have gradually improved, the policy has continued to increase, the logic of market demand recovery has been strengthened, the operating rate of domestic heavy trucks, passenger cars and tires has gradually strengthened, and the recovery of foreign automobile sales has driven tire exports to improve
.
For the future market, Thailand's production area is in the rainy season, due to weather disturbances and subsidy policies retreating, output increment is limited, rubber prices are expected to continue to strengthen
.
Among many factors, the postponement of new rubber and the shortage of spot rubber are the biggest factors
that led to the rise in the market of tianjiao this month.
In 2020, the situation is special, the epidemic, weather and other factors have caused the delay in the cutting time of Southeast Asian production areas, the slow release of raw material production, the great impact on rubber production, and the annual output reduction has been inevitable
.
The market expects that the supply side of Southeast Asia will not increase indefinitely in the third and fourth quarters, at the same time, the amount of new rubber in China's Hainan and Yunnan production areas is not optimistic, local traders said that the rubber warehouses in Kunming and Banna areas in Yunnan are basically empty, and the tight supply situation continues
.
The shortage of spot rubber coincides with the traditional sales season
of Jinjiuyin Ten.
Under the situation that the operating rate has continued to rise slightly in recent months, it is expected that the tire industry will improve to a certain extent in the third quarter, and some companies have attracted a wave
of price increases.
In the context of economic recovery, downstream demand is gradually warming
.
A number of sets of data show that since the third quarter, the warming of the automotive industry will bring about the continuous growth of downstream demand for tianjiao, although the speed is relatively slow, but the golden nine silver ten is coming, and the peak season of downstream demand in the industry is still strongly expected
.
In the future market, the traditional consumption season is coming, procurement demand is strengthened, coupled with the shortage of domestic rubber and some imported rubber in many places, the trend of Tianjiao shock is expected to continue, but some Tianjiao trade has not yet made much profit, Tianjiao this rise, will not be a continuous rise state, the market for the "gold nine silver ten" expectations are higher, maintain a cautious bullish view
.
