The price of pigs will be slightly adjusted in the high price this winter

Introduction: since this year, the production of pigs in China has stagnated, and the total amount of pigs on hand has declined steadily After entering October, according to the seasonal rules of previous years, pigs should gradually go out of the off-season and enter the peak season However, the shape of the off-season in October this year is not fading, and the signs of the peak season are not obvious I the number of pigs on the market at the beginning of the peak season is not prosperous According to the information from the insiders in the production area, the main characteristics of the current pig production are generally as follows: First, in the early peak season, the market momentum of pigs is not strong Sichuan is the province with the largest number of pigs in China The total number of pigs on hand is equal to the sum of the three provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui Moreover, the market peak season is earlier than other production areas Generally, in October, the market has entered the peak season The number of pigs on the market is relatively concentrated, and the price will fall back seasonally However, this year, there are some anomalies, not only the number of pigs on the market is not obvious Rising, and pig purchase prices remain at the off-season level Second, the price of pigs remained high In September, the average purchase price of pigs in Guoyang and other places in Anhui Province was 2.70 yuan (every 500g, the same below) In October, the price of pigs did not fall, but also rose to 2.80 yuan, 0.10 yuan higher than that in September, an increase of 3.7% Yancheng and other places in Guanxian County of Jiangsu Province are similar to Zoucheng in Shandong Province At present, the competition among self-employed people in these areas is very fierce, and the operation of food purchasing stations is very difficult, some of which have withdrawn from pig business The purchase price of pigs in October was all around 2.80 yuan, which was also about 0.10 yuan higher than that in September Third, the market pork sales are relatively weak According to Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and other places, after entering October, there is no sign of peak season for pig listing, especially in the second half of October, pig listing has declined sharply because farmers are busy with "autumn harvest" However, the sales of live pigs are also sluggish In addition, poultry, fresh eggs, aquatic products and vegetables are relatively rich, so the supply and demand of pork is still basically balanced 2 In the prosperous season, the price of pigs will remain high According to the current situation of pig production and marketing, looking forward to the market of pig supply and demand in the next two months, it is generally believed that the market of pigs will gradually increase and the sales of pork will be improved, but the price of pigs will be slightly higher than that in the third quarter Under the adjustment of price, the supply and demand of pork is expected to be basically balanced First, although the number of pigs available for listing this winter is not huge, the number of pigs available in the peak season will be significantly higher than that at present Not long ago, according to the survey data of nine major production areas including Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Chongqing and Hunan, the number of pigs on hand in the third quarter was 125 million, excluding the incomparable factors The actual number of pigs on hand decreased by 0.4% compared with the same period last year, among which the number of male and female pigs decreased by 1.7%, the number of piglets increased by 2.9% and the number of finishing pigs decreased by 1.1% Although the stock of fattening pigs is not rich, November to December is the prosperous season for pig listing Under the current situation that the proportion of individual pig raising is still the main one (81.2% in China), the weak season for pig listing will still be obvious Second, pork sales are expected to improve gradually Recently, the sales of pork in various producing areas are sluggish and the way out is not smooth It is said that the high-income people choose fresh seafood and eat less meat; the low-income people have limited consumption and eat less meat At the same time, some urban and rural residents have some concerns about eating pork because of the acute food poisoning caused by "lean meat essence" pork But these are changing gradually First of all, in order to punish the illegal production, sale and use of "Clenbuterol" and other criminal activities, the Supreme People's court and the Supreme People's Procuratorate have jointly issued a public announcement on the interpretation of several issues concerning the specific application of the law in criminal cases of illegal production, sale and use of drugs prohibited from use in feed and animal drinking water, which was officially implemented on August 23 In the past, there were no legal provisions for the crime of "Clenbuterol" and only administrative punishment, which was not enough to shock such illegal acts Now the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court of justice have announced six provisions of "interpretation" Criminal responsibility for such crimes can be investigated according to the seriousness of the circumstances This is a sharp legal weapon, which will further promote the healthy development of feed industry and breeding industry, maintain market economic order, and play a positive role in protecting the safety and health of citizens' eating meat It is expected that pork sales will improve 。 Secondly, pork is one of the popular meat food, which is not expensive, has a variety of ways to eat, tastes delicious, and has good nutrition It is loved by the majority of middle and low-income people, which is a large pork consumer group Only a small number of high-income consumers eat less meat, which has little impact on the total sales of pork Secondly, the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season for urban and rural people With the gradual cold climate, pork consumption in winter will gradually increase Third, the price of pigs will rise and fall slightly in the high price this winter With the arrival of winter pig market season, the price of pigs is expected to fluctuate slightly However, due to the slow growth and the decline in some areas, the national pig supply is not very rich, and the general weakness of commercial inventory, the pig price in the fourth quarter of this year will run at a higher price In Shanghai, the purchase price of pigs in the fourth quarter may be higher than that in the third quarter According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, the purchase price of pigs in Shanghai fell 6.9% year-on-year, with an average decline of 4.3% in the first quarter, 9.6% in the second quarter and 7% in the third quarter It is preliminarily expected that the pig purchase price in the fourth quarter of Shanghai stock market will be the same as that in the same period last year, and higher than the price level in the third quarter (off-season).