The price of corn is still weak in the later period of China

Introduction: at present, the listing time of northeast autumn grain is approaching gradually, which casts a shadow over the corn market where the price wants to rise again According to the statistical data of relevant departments, on September 6, Jilin Changchun medium maize ex warehouse quotation was 1070-1080 yuan / ton, and the centralized transaction price was 1050-1060 yuan / ton The ex warehouse price of corn is 1050-1060 yuan / ton and the centralized transaction price is 1040-1050 yuan / ton The ex warehouse price of medium-sized corn in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province is 1040-1050 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is 1030 yuan / ton The ex warehouse price of medium-sized corn in Suihua, Heilongjiang Province is 1030-1040 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is 1020 yuan / ton The average flat price of corn in Dalian port is 1150-1160 yuan / ton, and the centralized flat price is 1150-1155 yuan / ton The delivery price of Qinhuangdao corn is 1080-1100 yuan / ton, and the centralized delivery price is 1080-1090 yuan / ton The average flat price of corn in Qinhuangdao port is 1130-1140 yuan / ton, and the centralized flat price is 1140 yuan / ton The delivery price of corn in Huangpu port, Guangdong Province is 1240-1250 yuan / ton, the centralized transaction price is 1240 yuan / ton, the transaction price of corn with slightly poor quality in Huangpu port is only 1220-1230 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of corn in Shenzhen port today is 1240 yuan / ton All of the above prices are down from the previous week What is the trend of corn price in the future? This paper discusses the following aspects: first, the growth of corn: since mid June, in addition to several hails in Northeast China, which have caused some damage to corn crops, the main corn production area has a suitable climate, sufficient rainfall and moderate temperature are conducive to the growth of corn crops According to the experts participating in the first national market outlook meeting for major agricultural products, the average yield of corn per hectare in 2001 was 4826 kg, an increase of 5% compared with 4597 kg in 2000; the total yield of corn in 2001 is estimated to be 111 million tons, compared with 106 million tons in 2000, The output increased by 5 million tons, about 4.7% Therefore, the domestic corn production should get better harvest Second, the import and export trade: from the recent export sales situation, there are many uncertain factors in the import and export trade of corn The price of corn in the international market rose in July and early August, making China's export subsidy plan attractive It is obvious that the purpose of selling 3-4 million tons of corn through bidding in August is to reduce the huge stock as much as possible before China's accession to the WTO, because the country will not provide subsidies after its accession to the WTO Many people in the trade circle think that if the price in the international market falls again, it will be difficult to fulfill many export contracts that have been signed Despite the increase in exports, international prices have declined slightly in recent weeks, while the domestic average price remains around 140 US dollars / ton, far higher than the international market price Joining WTO at the end of this year means that China will import 5 million tons of cheaper corn next year In 2001, China's corn export volume is expected to be 10 million tons If China's corn export is not smooth in 2002, coupled with the import of 5 million tons, then China's corn volume will increase by 15 million tons, equivalent to 15% of the annual output Such a huge impact will make the domestic corn price difficult to maintain the current level Third, market supply and demand: it is estimated that China's corn harvest area is 23.1 million hectares in 2000 / 01 market year (October September of the next year), the beginning inventory is 102.314 billion tons, the output is 106 million tons, the annual market import is 150000 tons, the total supply is 208.46 million tons, the annual market export is 7 million tons, the domestic feed consumption is 93 million tons, and the total domestic consumption is 118 million tons Billion tons, ending inventory of 83.464 million tons It is estimated that in 2001 / 02 market year (October to September of the next year), China's corn harvest area is 23.6 million hectares, the beginning inventory is 83.464 million tons, the output is 108 million tons - 111 million tons, the annual market import is 3.5 million tons - 5 million tons, the total supply is 19496.4 million tons, the annual market export is 3 million tons, the domestic feed consumption is 95 million tons, the total domestic consumption is 120 million tons, and the ending inventory The stock is 71.964 million tons Higher inventories also weighed on corn prices It can be seen from the above that it is unlikely that China's corn will recover its upward momentum, and there may be a mild decline It is predicted that in the short term, the price in the production area will run between 1030-1080 yuan / ton, and the price in the sales area will not move too much The price should hover between 1200-1280 yuan / ton If the northern early frost comes ahead of time, the price of corn may have a rising process, but the rising trend of corn price in the later period is still weak (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: