The price of corn in the future in China will mainly be adjusted by vibration

Introduction: favorable factors: first, the output has maintained a low level for two consecutive years, and there is a gap in production and demand In 2000, China's corn output was only 106 million tons Although there was a recovery growth in 2001 (the expected output was about 112 million tons), it was still at a low level compared with the previous years In that year, the output was insufficient to meet the demand It was necessary to maintain the balance of supply and demand by digging inventory 2 The main corn producing areas will continue to implement the purchase policy of protection price and the sales policy of down price, which will play a policy supporting role in corn price 3 The Spring Festival is approaching, and the breeding industry and feed industry are entering the peak production season, which is expected to promote the recovery growth of corn consumption Fourth, the reserve scale of the central and local governments will be further expanded, the market commodity volume will be reduced, and the supply pressure will be further reduced V in recent half a year, corn price has declined a lot, especially since the purchase of new corn, the purchase price has also declined at the same time For the current lower purchase price, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain has been affected, and their reluctance to sell is gradually increasing Vi from the perspective of national foreign trade policy, corn export will still be maintained, but the operation is more difficult After China's accession to the WTO, the export subsidy of corn will be cancelled, and the export of corn will certainly be affected However, due to China's unique geographical advantages, the export of corn to some Southeast Asian countries can still be one shot 7 Due to the continuous rise of wheat price, the price ratio between wheat and corn has become reasonable, the substitution effect of wheat on corn in feed has weakened, and the consumption of corn feed is expected to pick up slightly Negative factors: 1 Compared with 2000, corn showed a restorative growth trend in 2001 Although the growth rate was not large, the increase of 6 million tons had a greater impact on people's psychology when the balance of supply and demand was surplus 2 The domestic corn stock is sufficient to meet the supply Although the output of corn is lower than the normal level for two consecutive years, due to the continuous increase of corn production in previous years, the inventory is sufficient to meet the domestic supply Third, the pressure of aging grain sales on corn price recovery will continue to exist From the end of October 2001, the state started to deal with aged grain in Dalian and Zhengzhou It is expected that in 2002, the state will still auction some aged grain, which will reduce the demand of feed and industrial enterprises The impact of lower prices on the market is inevitable 4 After China's accession to the WTO, the trade pattern of corn export reduction and import increase has basically become a fixed pattern It is estimated that China's corn export may be less than 2 million tons in 2001 / 2002, and the import volume will be more than 3 million tons According to the information provided by American feed grain Association, at present, China has purchased 885000 tons of American corn, which is the first large-scale import of corn in China since 1996 Under the impact of imported corn, the contradiction between domestic corn supply and demand will be more prominent in 2002, and the pressure of corn price rise will appear again 5 At present, the bearish psychology of all parties in the market has occupied the mainstream, which is hard to change in the short term Due to the long-term decline of corn sales price and the flat opening of purchase price, the market confidence was greatly hit, which led to the corn demand side's purchase is not active, looking forward to further price decline 6 The low price in the international grain market is bound to affect the domestic market After entering the customs, the international and domestic market will be more closely linked, the price linkage effect will be further enhanced, and the price trend of domestic corn market will be more constrained by the international market Through comprehensive analysis of the above factors, after a long period of downward adjustment of domestic corn price, there is not much room for the price to fall sharply again In the future, the domestic corn market is more likely to maintain the oscillatory adjustment under the combined effect of price increasing factors and underpricing factors, but it is certain that the price trend of domestic corn market in 2002 is generally weak, even if the price turns negative There won't be a big uptrend.