The price of corn in China

Introduction: Corn is one of the important grain varieties in China, which has always been the focus of people's attention Since the second half of last year, China's corn has got rid of the trough wandering period in recent years, and gradually moved forward to the peak The highest transaction price of vehicle board in Jilin Province has reached 1120 yuan / ton, and that in Heilongjiang Province has reached 1080 yuan / ton It can be seen that the land prices in Fujian, Zhejiang and other sales areas have also gone with the trend Degree of strength, reaching 1320 yuan / ton and 1330 yuan / ton respectively, while the port area has even reached a new high, the highest closing price of Dalian port has reached 1230 yuan / ton, which is a good trend in domestic corn market, and the news of price drop has come from all parts of the market, Grain companies have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the receiving and storage enterprises in the production area have to reduce their prices Suddenly, the expectation of the whole line of domestic corn in the late period of the year is greatly reduced, and the information of the price decline of domestic corn is constantly emerging Recently, the domestic corn price has been consolidated, and the decline trend is basically stable At the same time, the trading volume of Jilin Province has been reduced, and the daily trading volume is only about 1000 tons for several consecutive days According to the current trend, the author analyzes two possibilities for the later corn price to go higher and lower: first, the factors of going higher: 1 Policy impact The favorable price policy means that the state-owned grain enterprises should sell the grain at a price no less than the cost in the grain sales link, so as not to incur new losses and register accounts The favorable price sale indicates that the corn market price will keep above the average policy level in the future, but it is difficult to reach the favorable price level at present Therefore, the down trend of corn is restrained by the down price policy and promoted by the up price policy 2 The situation of market supply and demand is becoming tighter 1) farmers have limited food resources and are unable to provide a large amount of corn Take Jilin, the main production area, for example In 2000, due to the disaster, the surplus grain in the farmers' home was basically sold out before the spring sowing in 2001 There was no grain in hand for sale In 2001, there was another drought The grain field further reduced its output Most of the output will be reserved for its own use, and only a small amount of surplus grain can be supplied to the market 2) the purchase of grain enterprises is under pressure Due to the sharp reduction of corn production in 2000, the price rise appeared, the farmers' psychology of reluctant to sell was strengthened, and the purchase of autumn grain by storage enterprises was stagnant, and the task of purchase was faced with many difficulties Affected by the drought in 2001, the prospect of acquisition is not optimistic Once the acquisition is deadlocked, the market supply is out of order, and the price rise is beyond reproach 3) corn market demand shows a rigid growth Affected by the national economic environment, the feed industry and the breeding industry are booming, and the demand for corn is increasing The rigid growth of population also promotes the demand 3 Decrease of inventory level and increase of price In 2000, China suffered from drought, which reduced the output by 22 million tons, lower than the total domestic corn consumption The total corn inventory began to show a downward trend In 2001, most areas of China suffered from drought again In April, the northern region began to have a serious spring drought In June, the drought developed to the most serious degree At the time of normal sowing and emergence of corn, it grew The situation is affected by the drought, the unit yield level is lower than the normal annual situation In the middle of June, there was a continuous precipitation process in Northeast China, the local soil moisture improved, the corn growth situation improved, but the earlier stage caused the corn yield lower than the annual level did not change In this year, the autumn grain yield was affected, the population growth was rigid, the corn processing industry continued to rise, and the corn bank was affected As a result, the deposit will continue to show a rapid decline trend, thus promoting the price rise 4 The psychology of reluctant to sell remains unchanged In the early stage, due to the influence of various negative factors, the psychology of reluctant to sell of northern storage and collection enterprises has declined Some enterprises have sold off their stocks in large quantities With the recent stability of corn price, the psychology of reluctant to sell has gradually increased 2 Tendency to decline: 1 The intention of the state to sell off the state grain reserves In recent years, some regions in China have continuously launched the sale of national stored grain to the market Although the quantity is small, the sale of 2.25 million tons of national stored grain from Jilin Province in the early stage has not been specifically implemented, but the bad news from all parties is enough to suppress the price of corn The impact of the price decline in the early stage is very serious If the country's intention to sell a large amount of grain to the market remains unchanged, the price will rise It will be blocked and prices will tend to decline as supply increases substantially 2 The impact of China's entry into WTO on the price of corn After China's entry into WTO, the most serious impact on grain will be corn According to the bilateral regulations of China and the United States, China will provide 4.5 million tons of import tariff quota in the first year of China's accession to the WTO, and increase it to 7.2 million tons in 2004 And the proportion of private sector should reach 25% and 40% of the total quota respectively After entering the WTO, China will expand the import of corn, which will inevitably aggravate the contradiction of domestic oversupply, make it difficult to increase the price of corn, and have a great impact on the corn planting in the South and the south of Northeast China Considering the two possibilities of corn going up and down in the future, the author thinks that the key to determine the trend of corn price in the short term lies in the effective regulation and control of corn by the state in addition to weather factors If the selling period of national grain storage is delayed, corn price will be expected to go up again (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: