The pig industry has entered the "production reduction and weight reduction period" who will be out...

The current pig market in China is in a situation where supply exceeds demand

Is the "cutting period" coming?

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of the second quarter, there were 45.

Many people in the industry have said that in order to protect the profits of the pig industry, the current pig production capacity has to be reduced

Kong Hailan, a researcher in the pig industry at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, also told a reporter from China Business Daily: “The stock of reproductive sows also represents the production capacity of pigs

According to the plan, the changes in the stock of reproductive sows are divided into green, yellow and red areas, and corresponding control measures will be taken at each stage

It is worth noting that due to the high profits in the pig industry before, many large-scale enterprises and retail investors have increased their production capacity

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the China Business Daily: "Although the stock of reproductive sows has begun to decline, it is difficult to say that the overall basic production capacity of the industry has been significantly adjusted in a short period of time

Has the production of large-scale pig companies reduced?

At the end of last year, many listed pig companies that made a lot of money increased their slaughter volume this year

In the eyes of industry insiders, large-scale pig companies may take advantage of the trend to reduce production

The plan also gives clear production guidance to large-scale pig enterprises

"If the current pig production capacity begins to enter the elimination cycle, and the elimination rate is relatively large, the future supply of pigs will decline, which will definitely be good for the future sales of pigs for large-scale enterprises

Will retail farmers be eliminated first?

At present, China's pig industry, large-scale pig farms and individual retail investors are almost evenly divided into the world

In the downward phase of the "pig cycle", who will withdraw first from large-scale pig farms and retail investors? Chen Xiaoyu told a reporter from China Business Daily that policy support is still moving closer to large-scale farms

"Some retail farmers missed the period of high profits for pig raising, and they withdrew without making any money during the down phase of the'pig cycle'

Is the reduction of production capacity in the pig industry good for retail farmers? Zhu Zengyong told a reporter from China Business Daily that, compared with aquaculture companies, small and medium-sized households are greatly affected by market fluctuations and poor production stability.

"The removal and elimination of small and medium-sized households is affected by market rules.

What impact will the reduction in production have on the live pig market?

According to data from the Shanghai Steel Union-My Agricultural Products Network, the current national average price of live pigs is 10.
71 yuan/kg
.
After the pig industry enters the "production reduction and weight reduction period", the price of live pigs may rise to a certain extent, and the industry's losses will also be alleviated
.
Kong Hailan said that referring to the data in the past ten years, when there are 41 million sows capable of breeding, the corresponding live pig price is 10-15 yuan/kg.
Therefore, according to the plan guidelines, it is estimated that the price of live pigs will fluctuate mainly in this range in the future.

.
After adjusting the stock of reproductive sows, the number of live pigs for slaughter should decrease in May next year, and then the price of live pigs will return
.

Chen Xiaoyu also said: “The pig industry has obvious characteristics of cyclical volatility, and the regulation of national policies may alleviate the cyclical fluctuations of pig production to a certain extent
.
According to the plan, you can first pay attention to the reduction of pig production capacity and the reduction of pig slaughter weight.
Second, focus on the recovery of terminal pork consumption and the number of frozen meat imports, and finally focus on other unstable factors
.
"

In addition, industry insiders generally believe that after the issuance of the plan, the scale of China's pig breeding will be further improved
.
Kong Hailan said that the plan’s regulation of the production capacity of large-scale pig breeding reflects the country’s emphasis on the process of large-scale pig breeding.
In this “pig cycle”, the price of live pigs fluctuates under the interference of factors such as the African swine fever epidemic and the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
The magnitude is greater, and the impact on the aquaculture industry is also greater
.
The state hopes that through the continuous advancement and improvement of large-scale pig breeding, the huge fluctuations in market prices caused by the "pig cycle" will be scientifically and effectively stabilized, and the healthy and orderly development of the pig market will be guided
.

"Farmers themselves also need to have the inherent motivation to move to a moderately large-scale family farming.
Only after upgrading and transformation can production efficiency and the ability to withstand market risks in the future be improved
.
In addition to ensuring the stability of production, the introduction of the plan is also conducive to Promote the improvement of the scale and production stability of the pig breeding industry in the future, and then drive the transformation and upgrading of the entire industry
.
" Zhu Zengyong said
.