The peak demand season is not strong Propylene oxide market fluctuations are the mainstay

Propylene oxide market "Jinjiu" continued the previous rally, the market broke through the 10,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark, taking the Shandong market as an example, the market price rose to 10,500 to 10,600 yuan on September 15, up about
1,000 yuan from the end of August.
On September 20, it fell back to around
9800 yuan.
In the future, the supply side is expected to grow, the demand season is not strong, and propylene oxide fluctuates
in 10,000 yuan.

Appliance restart supply increased

Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Institute of Chemical Industry, said that propylene oxide suffered Waterloo in July, the price fell below 8,000 yuan, after which the market bottomed out, and the market supply fluctuated frequently in August
.
As of August 31, the mainstream transaction price of Shandong epoxy propane market was 9600 ~ 9700 yuan, and the market continued to rise
in September.

This price increase is not unrelated
to the reduction of the supply side.
In August, a total of 8 sets of propylene oxide plants were overhauled domestically, involving a total production capacity of 1.
222 million tons per year, with a total loss of 61,500 tons
.
In August, the domestic output of propylene oxide plants was 293,200 tons, down 2.
17% month-on-month, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.
83%.

After entering September, Sinochem Quanzhou propylene oxide plant was shut down for maintenance, Tianjin Bohua, Sinopec Changling, Shandong Huatai and other units were restarted, and the Jinling plant was reduced to half load operation
.
Currently, the operating rate of propylene oxide is close to 70%, down slightly from
August.

After the market, Shandong Daze 100,000 tons / year plant resumed production in late September, Jincheng Petrochemical 300,000 tons / year plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of September; Jinling and Huatai devices gradually resumed production, the supply side is mainly incremental, and traders have a certain bearish sentiment
.
It is expected that the propylene oxide market will show a stalemate and a weak trend under the increase of supply concentration, and there is a slight downside risk
.

Raw material support is expected to be strong

For the upstream raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine, although the "Golden Nine" ushered in a wave of rising market, the future market is expected to fall easily and difficult, and it is difficult to form a strong pull
on the downstream.

Entering September, the price of upstream raw material propylene continued to oscillate higher, which also provided strong support
for the propylene oxide market.
Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said that the domestic propylene supply side remains tight, and the performance of the northwest, central and east China regions is more obvious, coupled with the downstream maintenance equipment of propylene such as Tianjing butyloctanol, Dagu propylene oxide, Kerul acrylonitrile, etc.
have resumed work, so the market demand is pulling upwards, the sales of propylene enterprises are smooth, and the low inventory has driven the price of propylene up
.

From the perspective of device operation, on the one hand, Xintai Petrochemical and Luxi Chemical propylene plants have been restarted, but due to frequent delays, the impact is relatively limited, and at the same time, the new production capacity of some propane dehydrogenation to propylene in Shandong is less than expected, and the overall supply is relatively controllable
.
On the other hand, some of the main equipment in the northwest has recently stopped work and repaired, the start of propylene in the northwest region has fallen to 73.
42%, the circulation of peripheral propylene goods has been significantly reduced, and the demand for propylene external mining in individual northwest factories has been significantly tightened
.

In the future market, the load of propylene enterprises is relatively stable, the supply of propylene is not expected to change significantly, and the peripheral areas of Shandong and East China will still maintain a tight supply state
.
Downstream with the polypropylene disc surface weakens, suppressing the downstream buying enthusiasm of
propylene.
Therefore, the current propylene market is in a situation of supply and demand, but the downstream octanol, propylene oxide, acrylonitrile and other industries load increase, just the demand side still has some support, it is expected that the follow-up propylene price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the rise and fall is limited
.

Another raw material liquid chlorine market above the behavior of the main.

The sales volume outside the maintenance of some devices in the main factories has shrunk slightly, and some manufacturers in Luzhong are unstable, which supports the market to a certain extent
.
The main downstream of East China region recovered, demand eased, and some devices were parked and overhauled, the supply was reduced, and the supply and demand side was good and superimposed on the Shandong market, driving the overall transaction center of the market
upward.
Meng Xianxing said that with the resumption of production reduction devices and the increase in supply, there is a possibility
of downward adjustment of liquid chlorine prices in the later stage.

Demand is sluggish and the peak season is not strong

Polyether polyols are the most important downstream products of propylene oxide and the main raw materials
for the synthesis of polyurethanes.
The overall overcapacity of the domestic polyurethane downstream industry, especially the excess pressure of the soft bubble market
.

Meng Xianxing said that in September, driven by costs, the soft bubble polyether market rose, and the main players continued to operate in the market, but the downstream performance was general, and the low price in the middle and lower reaches still existed
.

At present, the downstream sponge is stable and rising, the upstream cost still needs to be further conducted, the middle and lower reaches remain digested and waiting, and the real disk
continues to be light.
From the perspective of the future market, although the substantive bearish has not yet been formed, many manufacturers still lack space due to cost clamping, and the role of upstream raw material support is limited
.

Another downstream hard bubble polyether market maintained a warm-swallowed upward trend, and the middle and lower reaches continued to buy on demand, although the overall activity was lower than the same period, but it improved
from the second quarter.
Although it has entered the "Golden Nine", there has been no significant change in market demand, and the factory has set production
according to demand.

From the perspective of the future market, downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, and the willingness to buy new orders is general
.
In the situation of two light trading, the hard bubble polyether "Golden Nine" is not enough, and it is difficult to inject vitality
into the upstream.