The pattern of supply and demand is weak, and Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range

In terms of demand, in the spot market, the shipment efforts of holders are stable, and the overall downstream transaction performance is more active
.
In terms of operating rate, according to SMM, the average operating rate of aluminum leading downstream processing enterprises this week increased by 0.
9% to 67.
6%.

In terms of processing fees, aluminum rod processing fees fell steadily this week, prices in Baotou Henan remained stable, Linyi area slightly lowered by 20 yuan / ton, Wuxi region decreased by 100 yuan / ton, Xinjiang and Guangdong region decreased by 230-240 yuan / ton; The price trend of aluminum rods in various places is differentiated, Guangdong prices are stable, Inner Mongolia slightly increased by 25 yuan / ton, Shandong and Henan regions decreased by 50-75 yuan / ton; The price of aluminum alloy fluctuated from line to line, with ADC12 and A380 raised by 50-100 yuan / ton; ZLD102/104 increased by 100 yuan / ton, A356 decreased by 200 yuan / ton
.
In addition, the General Administration of Customs announced that the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November was 509,300 tons, an increase of 6.
2% month-on-month and 20.
1%
year-on-year.

In terms of inventory, exchange inventory, the LME began to accumulate rhythm, this week accumulated 30,400 tons to 913,200 tons; Shanghai aluminum began to destock, this week to 13,600 tons to 321,400 tons
.
In terms of social stocks, alumina destocked from 7,000 tons to 270,000 tons this week, and the inventory level was only higher than the level of the same period in 2019, at a historical low; the pace of destocking of electrolytic aluminum social destorage accelerated, with 50,000 tons to 952,000 tons destocked this week, and Wuxi and Gongyi contributed mainly to the reduction
.
Under the weak recovery of demand, processors reduced the aluminum to water ratio of cast rods, resulting in faster destocking of aluminum rods
.
At present, aluminum rods returned to the accumulation rhythm after 7 weeks of destocking, and this week's inventory increased by 15,500 tons to 90,000 tons
.

From a fundamental point of view, the current weak pattern of supply and demand will continue
.
The northern region near the Winter Olympics faces dual risks of heating and environmental protection, and the consumption decline in the future may exceed expectations; In the past two weeks, the speed of aluminum ingot destocking has begun to accelerate, and the aluminum rod has changed from destocking to accumulation, and the decline in orders of downstream enterprises and the increase in operating rate also indicate that most enterprises are currently in the emergency rush stage
.
From the perspective of funds, the central bank released a signal to reduce the RRR on the evening of December 6, and on the 15th, it will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.
5%, releasing a total of about 1.
2 trillion yuan
of long-term funds.
In general, the response of aluminum prices to the RRR reduction is relatively flat, and there is no expected significant upward trend, it can be seen that most funds are in a cautious wait-and-see situation at the end of the year, and the possibility of large fluctuations in the near future is low
.